SpaceX 적정 가치에 대한 고민 🤔

I think they posted some 18B in revenue? Their current IPO valuation is 100x that. They have a pretty substantial moat and strong government contracts, but with companies like ASTS encroaching on Starlink and RKLB encroaching on medium launch, I have my doubts in Elon’s leadership to expand into other profitable areas. I’d put the valuation between 500-750B (including hype). 1.75 is outrageous and an obvious rug pull. Honestly the core business is strong, but including twitter and that dogshit AI is disgusting.

Nothing around the current valuation. It will inevitably rip on the ipo to get everyone excited and buying in. But only after everyone takes the bait does the real price discovery happen. Besides price, I think these two things are more important for the short term: 1) Options Market. Super curious to know how long it will take for options to be written on it. And how liquid will those options chains be? Options are super important to understand, even if you don’t trade them and only stick to stocks. 2) fast track index inclusion. how fast can the stock be introduced to sp500 index passive flow machine? This is super relevant to investment strategies and overall liquidity. I won’t invest in space x long term (the financials are garbage no matter what way you look at them), but am definitely considering playing the short term rip. Cheers

Around orcl tbh

wtf is “fair value”?? Does it exist in the same world as “fair tax” or “Pokémon card value”??

Much much lower, around 500 billion tips

When you figure out the fair value of Tesla, then we can start talking about the fair value of SpaceXai

Other than government grants (*at some point Musk has to shake that Welfare Queen image*), what is their main profit/revenue driver going to be — in space? Data centers / asteroid mining / mars colonies are all ridiculous vaporware. Space tourism is a fart in the wind. Is this going to be a “*more than a space company*” type bs to justify its valuation? Conflating it with AI will have those AI evangelists citing that as the main driver of revenue? Then begs the question, why not separate the businesses to achieve a better valuation for an AI company? You would typically fund a loss making growth project with a profitable venture, not compound two loss making projects into a bigger one. Unless you were undermining Fed space projects to become critical infrastructure so you can freely ask for bailouts to further fund your AI stuff. I’d value this company as zero tbh. It’s inherently dependent on gov money and gov intervention. Except ran by a ‘business genius’, whose business success has come from government handouts or being forcibly removed from unilateral decision making in PayPal.

$25 per share

70-160B

None, I simply do not like Elon Musk and the way he treats his employees and the general way he carries himself. SpaceX might be a great investment even if I'm not a fan of the dude, but I honestly do not know enough about it to make an educated decision. I found a video titled "SpaceX IPO: Nice Try Though" by Patrick Boyle interesting and it increased my desire to have nothing to do with SpaceX or any of Elon Musk's companies.

1000 OpenAI tokens.

When they separate Starlinks from the AI business and Elon shuts the fuck up about data centers in space. SpaceX business was good until Musk started using it as a financial fixer for all his bad business decisions elsewhere. Maybe to make it more on the nose, he can start shooting nuclear waste into space.

Is this some kind of bot trying to farm analytics? Why do you care about randoms valuations? Make your own. It's not like anyone will come here with insider knowledge to tell you something that isn't public