IPO 투자 성과: 경험에서 배우는 교훈 📉

IPOs are more likely to fall quite a lot after the start of trading because public markets are exits for smaller private companies, most of the growth is actually done, and they are going public to get a valuation and liquidity boom.

There are obviously many exceptions, as almost all public companies today have IPOed in the past, but the likelihood of getting such a high return if you bought every IPO is against you.

Just bc you guys own rivian cars doesn’t mean the stock will go up.

It's a lottery. I almost bought ARM at $56 on IPO, then decided it'll probably fall so went against it.

It's currently $370 as I type.

Rivian is going to make a come back. It'll take another 5 years, but it will hit 200 eventually

What seems more likely, spcx being worth 5T with 5B in revenue or being worth 250B? 🤔 

Friedrich Vorwerk was my first IPO.

Got my first 10 at 50€, my next 25 at 35€, my last 65 at 10€ or so.

Then I sold 30 at 90€ and made a profit and got free money.

I signed SpaceX IPO. Got measly 2 shares. But 3 more today to make it a less measly number.

I am planning to have 100s to 1000s of SpaceX shares 2035. (and an even larger YODA position)

Will dollar cost average until then, and don’t care what the stocks will do!

2 words.. Elon Musk

This will continue to moon

"(I thought it was as sure of a bet as anything at that time.)"

Automobiles have - with few exceptions (Ferrari, Toyota, BYD, Tesla) been mediocre investments. Musk has talked about the difficulties of the industry before (anyone remember "bankwuptcy?") and the 2020-21 EV move was a bubble. There was a 3 wheel EV company that made incredibly goofy cars and whose CEO had a banjo concert on his porch at the end of the conference call and yet that stock mooned - until it went to 0 right after. Lots of EV companies that went public in 2020/21 have been obliterated or gone to zero (for one or two of those it wasn't the first bankruptcy.) Look at Aston Martin at about 55 cents a share, continuing to flirt with bankruptcy #7.

"do not plan on ever buying an IPO again."

That's fine but you're basing it on a very mixed bag of examples.

simpler to just state the stat: 8-10% of IPOs generate returns within 3-5 years

SpaceX IPO was a huge success, redditerinos were wrong again (as always), now it's time for cope posting 

Lol sample size of your 4 IPO experiences within different market space.

*BuT tHIs tImE It'S difFFrenT!*

Same. I was going to pick either HNGE or FGMA. I picked the wrong one.

There’s no “hype” with any of the companies you mentioned. Not in the general sense of mass understanding.

You thought Rivian was a sure bet because you thought it was the next Tesla? IIRC, that was the hype back then.

Rivian barely started selling cars before going IPO just two months after.

There is no next SpaceX; this is it. It’s the well-established standard (strictly-speaking from my perspective of working in aerospace).

Wow, I don't think this sentiment has been beaten to a pulp here yet.