Anthropic는 AGI 없이는 특별한 경쟁력이 없습니다 ⚠️

Let me say this as a heavy user of Opus, Codex and Gemini. I know AI bulls don’t want to hear this. AGI is not happening anytime soon. Maybe when there is a new AI model that can take the current AI to the next level. These LLM models still hallucinate like crazy and sometimes can’t even do simple tasks correctly. They are great tools but AGI? Give me a break. I spend more time fixing and reviewing their mess than actually working on the project itself. It is just a marketing hype at this point.

Actually I'd argue that AGI isn't a moat either. If Anthropic can achieve that milestone, others won't be far behind.

Agreed. The whole problem is that they're trying to create a general purpose AI, when what companies really need is specialised enterprise AI for their specific use cases. I don't need my fraud detection software in a large bank to tell me how to bake a chocolate cake. But the only thing that justifies their valuation is the belief that most workers will be replaced by AI software in the future. If AI is not 'general intelligence' but just another tool, then humans will always be required and suddenly the valuations look silly.

You nailed it. It's not just Anthropic, it is all the hyper scalers. Their models all rely on having the best LLM and serving it to customers at premium prices. What will probably happen over time is "good enough" open source LLMs will appear and customers will self serve. We've already seen this happen with open source OSes, like Linux and various applications. Microsoft wants to own your computer and applications but more and more customers are moving away from that. The AI hyperscalers have no moat. Not individually and not collectively.

Almost every respectable enterprise or tech company has switched over to Claude in the last year. Their moat is enterprise sales and while the switching cost is not as high as say ERP, it’s there. No NA or EU company is going to be using a Chinese model. The consumer use cases you’re thinking of are pennies to the dollar. Some random guy paying $30 and churning in 2 months is not the same as a company with 500 devs all using $10k a month in Claude tokens. As Gemini captures the entire consumer market with their integrations and Anthropic takes the enterprise market, OpenAI is the odd one out and I think they know it. The economics are reaching equilibrium. Without AGI the valuations won’t be as high but these will be profitable utility adjacent companies and that’s fine.

we are a good 20 years from AGI

Which is why existing SaaS companies with the budgets to invest in efficient target AI layers built ontop of the sticky data are the next hype cycle. Just need to wait for the market to realize it.

All frontier models are pretty close to one another. If one reaches AGI, which it won't anytime soon, the rest will also follow fast. They use the exact same tech.

The LLM market is looking more and more like a race to the bottom. You spend all this money to build a frontier model, charge a big premium to use it, only for your customers to route more workloads to cheaper models that are just good enough to get the job done.

Those people are about to cashout soon

Thank you oh great China for these amazing and cheap models that are totally comperable and cheaper by bending the rule of physics. We call those new rules Chinese physics and they are very great, tremendous I would even call them. Thank you OP for this insightful post and totally thought through posts. May China prosper and be great forever and ever. Glory to the Chinese empire.