호르무즈 해협 긴장 속에서 공격적으로 투자하는 가장 안전한 방법은? ⚖️

Safe and aggressive are contradictions in the market

I wish there were some way to block out these bullshit AI slop posts.

>stable aggressive

Short puts

The time to be aggressive was the past few weeks.

TSLA puts ;)

Stable aggressive..... Everyone and their aunt seems to have a "take" on the strait, but no one wants to buy solid companies at fantastic prices. Maybe that's a safe way to stay aggressive - buy good companies that have been down on irrationality. But alas, that needs patience, something that's very hard to come by with a gambling mindset.

Oxymoron.

The safest way to be aggressive, ala stay invested is the s&p 500. Pick an ETF and weekly buy. SWPPX

Its just weird how bears hide their post and comments

Honestly the premise might be a little off today. VIX dropped to 19 this morning after Trump extended the ceasefire, and the Russell 2000 is within a hair of its first record close since January. That's not a "managing downside" tape — that's a risk-on rotation into small caps.

What I've been watching on the social side: the energy/defense pair trade is getting a lot of airtime but the flow I'm tracking across about 10 platforms has been quietly rotating into industrials and small-cap tech. GE Vernova up 7% on earnings this morning is the kind of tell that usually shows up in social chatter two weeks before it pops.

For hedging, cash drag is real when the 10-year is where it is. Precious metals into a falling-VIX environment is a tough trade. If Hormuz actually flares again you want puts, not gold.

I don't have a strong read on energy here. The crude action has been noisy — briefly crossed $113 earlier this month and now back toward the $90s. Hard to build conviction either way.

Earnings have been coming in strong and will likely continue to, so I’m going to stay mostly invested in strong companies I think have reasonable valuations ex Meta, MSFT. BUT I think it’s a bit crazy the market has priced in that this war is essentially over and there will be little to no long term effects. I had a little bit of margin I got rid of, and am starting to accumulate a bit of a cash position. Have some other cash in savings I could deploy and would even go back into margin if I think another opportunity arises. It’s also too risky to be sitting in mostly cash with high inflation though, so it’s a balance.

Safe and aggressive are mutually exclusive I can’t begin to tell you how ridiculous that sounds

DCA

Exxon for the dual US energy and Helium production play

I think drone companies are a good investment. Iran has shown that they are ahead of or equal to the US on drone technology. US govt/military is not happy about that. Major amounts will be spent on drones and defenses against drones.

COST and WMT

Next week, on 4/29, the Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, MSFT and meta) have their quarterly reports. Last quarter they promised massive AI spending. Since then, there has been public pushback on data centers and reports that, while they can secure the NVIDIA chips, the rest of the data center supply chain is restricting the speed of the build out.

I predict they are going to cut this year's AI spending by half or more.

May 14-15 Trump visits China. I think Trump wants to keep the Straight of Hormuz closed until then to use in negotiations.

Those are the two big things I see on the near term calendar. Long term, I got nothing. Way too many macro-unknowns.

HYSA

|Theme|Names|Weight|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Oil Shock|XOM, OXY|**35%**|
|Power / Nuclear|CEG, CCJ, NEE|**40%**|
|Materials|FCX, MP|**25%**|

Trust that the best president in the history of the USA will continue to lead us to record high stocks, low crime, and lower inflation than the previous administration. It’s really not difficult but if you’re a leftist just keep fighting facts and stay poor.