주말에 생각해 본 투자 편견 체크 🧐

Seems like something a bag holder would say.

Maybe this post pisses me off because it's posted every five fucking minutes. Does that make me a bull or a bear?

All good points. The thing that is not mentioned is inflation and interest rates. As they say, don't fight the Fed. The current bull run took off when the Fed started the easing cycle. But with the war/fuel prices and tech boom, seems like a lot of inflation pressure in the system. Given the political environment, Fed will be slow to raise rates. But the inflation pressures are going up, and the "affordability" message that politicians say they care about may force rate hikes. Don't fight the Fed. My prediction is that is how the bull run comes to an end.

What if you’re very long, but it still feels like a bubble? Like, you feel exactly the same as you did in August of 2008 when you held a lot of the same equities?

Yep, check US oil reserves and then speak. Gasoline expected to go empty within 3 weeks, forcing US to stop its sales worldwide. It will end very poorly, and not only because Israel never will accept a deal which benefits Iran & allows them to build more unstoppable hypersonic stuff. Check the favourite 🥭 president, the most infamous one who did tariffs and plunged markets over 50% before getting fired...

“the war will cause a global recession”. When else did you hear this? Tarrifs? Covid? Ukraine?

This, as soon as oil analyst start talking about Paper vs reality I knew it was time to go long stocks

Bears always find a way to not be involved. They're scared of their own shadow, and everyone else's shadow, and the whole world's shadow. They mistake fear for wisdom.

People convince themselves there's a bubble when it doesn't exist. There's no hard evidence of one, and all indications point to growing markets globally. All the bears and naysayers have to go on is reddit conspiracy theories and half-assed historical comparisons.

They think external market events like war and pandemics as calamitous for the market. Bad things happen in the world all the time, and when the market itself is working and profitable (like now), these external events are buying opportunities not points of sale.

Bears will talk themselves out of profit. And they'll have you buy into their theories just to validate their frail mental state.

People are biased because AI is taking their jobs. They want AI to fail because they missed NVDA and they got laid off.

It's pretty clear that the institutional investors financing hyperscalers are much smarter than a midwit retail investor on reddit. If everyone thinks its a bubble, it probably isn't.