아틀라시안, 매출 6배 성장했는데 2018년 주가 📉 가치 함정일까, 기회일까?

I own a little bit of $TEAM.

It's a trap.

They have been executing really well on the top-line growing quarter after quarter steadily and very nicely. The latest quarter was excellent like you mentioned.

Two things:

a) Their SBC basically negates all their FCF and then some more. If they are using AI internally to improve operating leverage, it's not visible yet.

b) They have also been making very expensive acquisitions - basically overpaying to try and hit an AI holy-grail. They are relying on acquisitions / bolt-on instead of thinking ground-up about an AI future.[*] Rovo is thus far unimpressive, and they don't have the "muscle" for ground-up innovation.

[*] Caveats - they do have an official MCP server (which is really important for future human<>agent collaboration), and their Rovo agent is getting more functional. Howver, you do need to believe that their suite of products is a sufficient moat that in the future customers want to use Jira in spite of the poorly integrated AI.


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I'm going to wait for a few quarters and sell my shares if there are is no materially positive news on the AI and operating leverage front. The current revenue growth is all smoke and mirrors.

Investing in an unprofitable company in 2018 and still investing in a company that is unprofitable seems not great

I wouldn't go near it as it's been operating at a GAAP loss, although it looks to be getting close to profitability

Not just TEAM, I have a whole list of undervalued companies I've been buying recently:

TEAM, WDAY, NOW, ZM, CRM, ADBE, INTU,

since I had to use their stack I would not touch it… I hated it with s passion

Double whammy: Their main product can be vibecoded by AI. Their userbase is also may get vibecoded away.

I think with all the software jitters around AI this will be going quite a bit lower before it goes higher.

Looks good. Forward P/E of 19.4, PEG ratio < 1 and 23% yoy growth. Market expectations are predicting profitability this year and they regularly hit expectations, which could mean S&P500 inclusion. They also announced a stock buy back offsetting SBC.

The current valuation has been beaten down on the idea that everyone is going to build and maintain their own tools rather than buy them. I've cut my fingers catching this falling knife but think in 2 quarters after more results with 20+% yoy growth the tales of Atlassian's demise will be seen as greatly exaggerated.

You won’t find anyone value to buy into a growth story for the future. That is what they have to sell, future growth. Yes SBC is high, the people are critical of their products. Name someone not critical of a company’s products really. There is always something. I think the SaaS winter is upon us but there is a lot of growth and management here that can turn the ship around and this could be another darling in the coming years. I hold stock and options in TEAM.