메모리 반도체 MU의 낮은 미래 주가수익비율(P/E), 왜 시장은 이렇게 보는 걸까? 🤔

Because memory is cyclical in a way that GPUs kinda aren’t. At some point, most likely in 9 months or so, there will suddenly be way more available supply and these stocks will come crashing back to earth. a way more extreme version of previous memory supply cycles like 2018 and 2022. The hyperscalers can only spend their entire free cash flow on capex for so long. Few quarters at most before the market is like “wtf is this, I bought this stock because you’re supposed to be profitable” and then the party for MU/SNDK etc will naturally have to end.

Memory always had over production causing cycles of demand and high inventory, until only recently where theyve begun being bottlenecked due to such strong demand that years of supply is booked. You cant just force the market accept the current trend until they prove they can escape the memory cycle, if they can maintain margins and demand for 2-3 years, post this question again

What are you talking about? MU has gone parabolic and doubled since last month.

Their margin expansion is temporary due to shortage. It’s not likely that they will continue to command 80%+ margins for memory. Also, the spending comes from just a few hyperscalers (4). If even one of them pulls back, it stops being a shortage.