마이크론, 아직도 이렇게 저평가된 걸까? 🤔

I sold at 445 in January, this is the top now, I am the messiah.

It’s not undervalued. Do the math. A 5 forward PE means EPS of ~$90 is anticipated. The uncertainty is simple - is the market really expecting these earnings to stay (or even happen for that matter)? No. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be at a forward PE of 5. Nobody knows when the earnings will collapse, at some point they will. The hyperscalers will not continue to spend 400-700B per annum indefinitely. As soon as they will announce a slowdown of cap ex or there is suddenly a slew of cancellations of data centers (there already is a number of them being cancelled), the stock will plummet in anticipation of plummeting earnings. It’s not necessarily cheap. If earnings drop from $90 per share estimated to $5 per share, suddenly your 5 forward PE becomes a 90 PE. See the problem now? The uncertainty you’re missing is that these earnings are highly uncertain. If this $90 EPS was recurring revenue with <1% churn rate; that’s an entirely different story. Instead, it’s a peak semiconductor cycle that can stop at any moment.

Yes

It’s the market maker programming. They’re reading fomo instead of valuation. Acting like it’s late stage breakout ahead of a major correction while it’s behaving already like the only corrected valuation in the whole entire market even though it’s up huge.