📚 듀오링고(DUOL), AI 시대에도 투자할 만할까?

Is that your DD?

The network effect is a huge moat i think. The number of subscribers are rising yoy. They are profitable for multiple quarters. They are expanding into chess and math.

Look at the network effect of google, how easily they connected gemini with their existing products and the search engine while ChatGpt is more or less a standalone which is a huge risk i think. They could not onboard a huge number of users to atlas either.

I look the same at DUOL, they have a huge and growing userbase, an they can easily play with integrating ai. I bet they are working on some kind of chatbot for convos. Even if someone comes and makes a better app, they can just copy it and throw it instatntly on a huge userbase.

Im bullish.

lol Joseph Carlson

With chatbots improving every week and Google Translate adding language teaching, I would never go long on Duolingo.

Not financial advice.

A buy imo, all software companies dump cuz everyone with size in investing diversify so everything sells off. But decoupling is bound to happen, probably after the current software bear market when people start hunting for opportunities. I expect more than half of the software companies will die, but $DUOL won’t be one of them. I don’t see anyway AI can replace language learning.

Given the sheer number of Reddit posts desperate to validate it as having some sort of future, I'd say it's done. If you're all so unconvinced you have to beg online for emotional support, its cooked. PayPal one week, Duolingo the next.

One of Duolingo problems is that it isn't converting new users to subscribers as efficiently as it was, it's losing pipeline efficiency. And I can't see published data for the trends in hours-per-subscriber or subscribed non-users, both of which are critical for evaluating the performance of a subscriber platform.

And everyone supporting Duolingo is in a rush to criticise AI for language learning, maybe you've all missed the pivot Duolingo has done to bring increasing amounts of AI into the app? If AI is such a bad thing for language learning then what you're really telling us is that Duolingo is heading in the wrong direction.

I used tried it for 2 months.. I learned 2 sentences and how to say lawyer in Japanese.

it's funny how investors want Duol to incorporate AI into their app, but the existing users of DUOL don't want AI slop in the app, so who's right and who's wrong in this case? when Duolingo announced taht they will reduce human content generation and rely on AI, investors were elated but the users were against it, and threatened to leave duolingo.

I thought DUOL was already using OpenAI as it's translation engine

even without ai , there s nothing stopping someone else and making a better app, their language games are mid, but as always there s a small group that loves it and pays for it

I think putting your money in this thing right now is stupid. AI is going to completely disrupt online learning. Maybe DUOL has a strategy for that, but investing in this company right now is just guessing that they'll figure it out. This is the definition of NO MOAT.

It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but DUOL just reminds me too much of Chegg. Another paid learning service that can be almost entirely replaced by AI.

At its core there’s no real moat to a language learning app. Duolingo has done a good job of convincing people to keep coming back through gamifying it, but in terms of actually becoming fluent in a language I have a sneaking suspicion that Google translate’s AI language learning tools are going to be far superior.

I don’t have a dog in the fight so hopefully I’m wrong and you make lots of money. I just don’t see anything unique about them that AI can’t copy or improve upon.