데이 트레이딩 전략, 진짜 과학적일까? 🤔

I would like to know that myself

There is nothing scientific about trying to predict the future. You can create models and stick to those models, but that’s more akin to engineering (lite) than science. For it to be scientific you’d need to be able to control all factors and change only one factor at a time. That is impossible in a marketplace. the best one can do is create models and stick to the convictions and principles that led the person to create said model.

They're not so much scientific as they are somewhat repeatable and recognizable because they occur as a result of human behavior which can also be somewhat repeatable and recognizable. The issue does come into 2 things- execution and risk management. FYI, risk management isn't a money maker, it's a money saver and an all important tool for traders. I'm trying to keep this short, so I'll leave it there.

OP your instincts are dead on, f**k vibes

it's amazing how many people conflate risk management with risk mitigating processes like stop losses..

risk management starts with the risk picture.

how informed are you on the risk picture

period. full stop.

As far as I can tell.. it's not so much prediction as it is finding places where you have a net positive EV on win vs loss. Put another way, find a place where a decision is likely to be made, then cap the loss if the decision goes one way but uncap the win if it goes the other way.

What you're asking about though is really more about technical analysis and charting. What people are really tracking when they track this stuff is market sentiment. Where do people seem to be wanting to buy, and where do they seem to be wanting to sell? There are a lot of strategies because there are a lot of ways that people have tried to infer this information from the data we have available.

Risk management is absolutely the money maker because it is what allows for disproportionate wins to losses:

Imagine a coin flip game. You bet $1. If it goes tails 3x below zero (EG HHTTTTT), you lose a dollar and you're out. If it goes heads 3x above even (EG HTHHHH), you win a dollar but you get to stay in until you coin flip goes negative 3x in a row. At some point you can lock in your profits and take unlimited upside.

So... imagine these sequences:

HTTTT - You lose $1.

HTHTHHHTH, you quit and win $1.25.

HHHHH - You lock in a dollar of profit... then it goes TTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH You just made $50.

Your total W$L % ends up being around 50%, but your overall profits end up being more than your losses.

That's what risk management does for you.

It is definitely an art for me. There are several layers of information I want to consider, including news events, ticker history, price action, and indicators for support. I use this context to determine how best to respond to events in a stock's price. I don't predict the future, I weigh probabilities and use rules to manage my risk.

Fantastic observation mate! And you absolutely right to question that. There's no science behind videos on YouTube. Non of the strategies you find there have an edge, because there's nothing behind them. It only looks simple to get your attention, spend time watching so they can make money from ads. The actual working profitable strategy you will never find online. And it is based on data, statistics, econometrics and financial models.