SNDK 주식 상승 전에 어떻게 찾아냈을까? 🤔

Bro, you don’t need to find winners before they run. You can join winners AS THEY RUN.

Reddit [r/stocks](r/stocks) is how I heard. I got in at $700. I follow this sub closely. I have found some gems

It doesn’t matter where you look, before it runs, every dd sounds like a madman’s rambling and the general consensus is that it’s not a good idea. And then before it runs, the chart makes it look like all the naysayers are correct. Only afterwards do you see the successful run and you feel like you missed out and you think that everyone was in on some secret that you missed out on. Reddit, for all of its flaws and pitfalls, does indeed identify a lot of these stocks successfully before they run, but they’re buried in a sea of DD that won’t play out at all. Go check out any of the subs, including wsb and penny stocks. There are tons of DDs. The ones that are correct in retrospect probably have like 40 upvotes and a bunch of comments explaining why the thesis is wrong. My point is that knowing who to believe is next to impossible. However, readings these subs can at least sometimes alert you to the beginnings of a successful run, although when the run starts, there will also be a ton of naysayers telling you that it has already reached the top. AND they are also often correct.

"if build many data centers, why no need ram?" "if build many data centers, why no need cpu?"

Luck and conviction really.

Go to where demand will be next. I’m looking at energy because it will be needed for the data center build out. Take a look at First Solar FSLR.

As someone who works in tech, kinda kick myself for not doing a deep dive analysis on other plays earlier

Building out data centres is just like building out massive PC's. All the rage has been on the GPU side. PC gamers knew Nvidia and AMD were king of graphics years ago. You then think about the other components, AI is a mass amount of data, we store and process that through.. largely volatile and non-volatile memory. WDC and Seagate have always been dominant in that field. Sandisk is a spin off from WDC. Then you look at volatile memory, or RAM. SK Hynik and Samsung have been dominant players for years. PC gamers have always needed lots of RAM. Who runs the company Crucial? Micron. I was saying MU was good at $90. Then you start to look at how things are connected together, connectors and cabling. Fibre has been replacing copper to transmit data for a long time. There we have the photonics play, like Lumentum. All of these cables connect to connectors, that's Amphenol

When you think about the play like that, it almost became obvious

it wasnt this article, but i began to see articles like this mid last year. it was that moment i started buying up MU, SNDK, WDC, and STX

[AI data centers are swallowing the world's memory and storage supply, setting the stage for a pricing apocalypse that could last a decade | Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/storage/perfect-storm-of-demand-and-supply-driving-up-storage-costs)

there was chatter on reddit of a NVIDIA card shortage about 2017 or so and there was chatter about a ram shortage about 2 yrs ago.

when the ai bubble started going you d have had to gamble on a provider like litography machines, and had some serious guts.

Personally its very gambly

Read a lot, understand the world around you. Read the boring flings and earnings reports. Stay active and don’t sleep on things. It’s all tedious work and depends on your bandwidth. Staring at those charts daily eventually starts making sense. Certain things make sense once you have some expertise. I am sure you have come across things like that in life where your confidence level is just high. It’s work but all about reasoning and applying yourself. You will be wrong a bunch too. Size positions, be patient. Keep learning. Generic crap I know but if you think serious hedge funds are doing anything different you are wrong. They have some economies of scale and execution capabilities. Your advantage is small size (you don’t have to trade a 100 million that will move the market in process).

I found Sandisk mentioned by someone in here one day at $300 in January, I was already in with micron since last March and knew ram was about to explode after the consumer prices went crazy signalling supply shock.

No news feed, platform, subscription, or indicator will help you find SanDisk before the run up but I also disagree that it's luck. I would argue finding these multi-baggers is primarily a skill game which requires you to know the market better then the majority.

Last year it was absolutely possible for anyone to put together that 1 the AI trade was not about to end and 2 that the bottlenecks were going to move away from accelerators and into memory and CPUs. However the best time to invest is well before new feeds or retail cotton onto the trade.

you actually have to pick a sector and then look at the large mid and small caps for opportunities. maybe you do some screenings first but then go through them one by one. last year i did a map of ai for example. i didn't buy what i should have but at least i knew about it!

You find them mentioned and then you stress test them. Find every bear cases you can. If it survives, then you have now created a thesis why it will perform well and have experienced why you have conviction in it. If you trust in yourself and you have conviction, it lets you to buy things before the market realizes a stocks' potential. Let me tell you how much anti-SNDK posts and analysis articles were out there when I was stress testing SNDK. It was the majority of the noise. That's where the conviction is most important. It allows you to initiate a purchase against almost everyone telling you otherwise. Those who were wrong about sndk usually disappear or double down against it. You also see analysts change their price targets higher once an earnings call comes through positive. Then you learn which voices in the noise are reliable once the dust settles.

It’s very hard. Even fund managers who get paid millions to spend all day thinking about this stuff struggle to consistently outperform their benchmark, so don’t beat yourself up. There’s definitely a fair amount of luck involved. Like the early investors in NVDA just made a bet on gaming, it wasn’t even on the radar as a potential AI powerhouse so while they made a fortune, their investment thesis wasn’t even “right”

Even most fund managers missed Sandisk.

The key is to buy as soon as u see it’s going up …

Buy first then do any additional thumb twiddling

You don’t try to buy the needle in the haystack. You buy the whole haystack and the needle is guaranteed to be included.

Paraphrased from some famous investor whose name is currently escaping me.