🧐 SaaS 주식 매수에 대한 고민과 기회

The issue with SaaS is that they traded at expensive/very expensive valuations for years because everyone loved the SaaS business model. Now that the future is less certain for these companies (not saying 0's like people have bizarrely taken to acting like what's happening, but concerns over future growth rates, etc), there has been a significant re-rating. Are these names actually genuinely cheap, or were they very expensive and now just reasonable (but with concerns about the future, are they likely to get very expensive again for a long time? In other words, has the ceiling been lowered?)

I wouldn't look at where these have traded in the past ("what if it got back to that?"-style thinking), I'd really focus on what companies in this sector can you make a very, very strong case for going forward because while these names will find a floor at some point, there will be other headlines in the months and years ahead.

So, I think people have to have a very specific thesis and for all the questions about software in recent months on here, nobody's talking about the fact that these companies have been volatile and had similar declines in the past, including the recent past. Nobody cared much when CRM or NOW were down 50% off the top in 2021-2022, but so much interest now that there's a narrative. Are what these companies doing exciting and providing relevant, compelling outcomes for customers? If not, then I wouldn't consider it for a long-term holding. If someone is looking for a trade, is it oversold? Do you think it will be carried by some sort of rotation into/short covering in IGV in the very near-term? What is the catalyst? etc etc.

I have zero interest in CRM (Benioff created a massive company, but he's increasingly turned into a real life Gavin Belson), NOW has never really interested me and ADBE is a no. The stuff that kind of interests me are smaller names (something like IOT, where there are devices and it's not just 100% software) or something like NET (certainly not a good reaction to earnings, but the name had gotten ahead of itself in recent weeks.) Perhaps DDOG on a pullback?

Also, in terms of software Chris Hohn taking his MSFT position that has been held for the last decade from 10% to 1% is noteworthy.

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If this week Datadog performance is a sign to come of Dynatrace earnings next week.. I’d say Dynatrace.

Everyone who is gonna cash in on 2x gains in a month will look for somewhere to put it..

Sooo, what better place than beaten up saas. Sector rotation will pop these 20-35% in the next few weeks.

I played around swing trading both a bit. But my honest take is that regardless of whether they are still good businesses capital is exiting software right now and everything is piling into semis and memory tickers and I think that'll hold for probably a year+.

So maybe put them on your watch list but I don't think you risk much by staying out for now. They could move lower too after next earnings if they continue to disappoint.

Why are stocks like DDOG FTNT AKAM and others are recovering already not NOW ADBE CRM ?

In the long term, AI is becoming a functional layer, not a replacement. Businesses are still willing to trust so I'm still holding on

CRM was a killer for my portfolio. My advisor was instructed to create a tech based portfolio. Had to endure a lot of losers over the last 2 years.

Seeing how easy it is to make your own software program, some of them will suffer for sure. The company i work at talks about making our own CRM because of how expensive microsoft crm is. So i am sure some software companies will suffer eventually.

What i think has no chance to be replaced in the near future are companies like INTU. Just due to the sheer cost of switching an ERP systems. Moving decades of financial data is just too critical on a system already integrated with banks, shipping, customers etc. In addition to the enormous cost for a company to chance ERP, there are high barriers for making your own due to accounting regulations, tax laws, GDPR and all that shit.

That is just my opinion, which is why i bought INTU recently. I dont believe they are in equally great danger as other software companies, but their prices has dropped like it is

I wouldn’t touch SaaS right now.