MSFT만 올해 초부터 계속 조용한 이유, 이해가 안 돼요 🤔

I think it got lumped in with software while AI and Semis pumped. Be patient. Stock market is cyclical, AI and semis will inevitably come down and MSFT will likely outperform when that time comes.

Yeah, it’s frustrating. It’ll go up, but the opportunity costs are starting to hit hard for me.

There are a couple of factors here causing uncertainty, and investors hate uncertainty. All of the bear thesis IMO are clearly overblown. Nonetheless they cause uncertainty, so people sell. The first issue is that MSFT is getting lumped together with all other SaaS in the 'SaaSpocolypse'. Investors are worried that AI will erode software moats, as it's now much easier to create software. I am a software dev and while AI is incredibly useful, no one is going to vibe code the 365 office suite and get enterprise to sign up to replace 365. Google has had 'Google Sheets' for nearly 20 years and 365 continues to grow at incredible rates. This thesis also completely ignores that AI is a huge benefit specifically to software companies as i) increasing dev productivity, reducing costs ii) improving the software produce through integration with AI. Consumer 365 growth has been eyewatering since they included Copilot in the subscription, and Enterprise is following. Secondly MSFT is strongly linked to OpenAI, which is out of favor compared to Anthropic. The deal MSFT has with OpenAI is insanely one-sided, they have IP rights and revenue share. Azure has a ~600bn backlog of which OpenAI is around ~200bn. So people are worried that if OpenAI go bust MSFT will somehow be screwed. But a cursory look at the % of Azure backlog OpenAI make up demonstrates this is clearly not the case. In general there is a sense that MSFT 365 revenue is vulnerable + it has lost the AI race. However MSFT is extremely well positioned to benefit from selling AI to enterprise due to existing integrations, and they basically have ChatGPT has an in-house model due to their IP arrangement. They have their own chips (MAIA) which by all accounts are pretty good, and are looking to deploy their own frontier model by 2027. TBH there is very little separating MSFT and GOOG, both hyperscalers with their own chips that are going to pad margins on their cloud business, both dominating in their respective fields. Last year people were worried AI would kill search, this year people are worried AI will kill software. Both thesis don't hold up past cursory investigations but during sweeping technological change investors like to sell first ask questions later. Soon the narrative will change again, probably once investors catch on that AI-consumption revenues are going to be a huge plus for software companies, with their development costs also coming down. There will be a trigger at some point, but until then, the stock is going to struggle.

Fear of dying of existing SaaS business model because lf AI disruption. Compared to other big software companies like Servicenow, or Salesforce, Microsoft is doing pretty good still

Microsoft always lowballs their earnings though. Look at their past earnings. Also, SaaS is being "re-valued"

Same Like Google last year - will rip to new ATHs eventually. Happy to keep buying

So buy now, this is what i don't understand. if MSFT is so good and it's not moving for many days isnt that the best time to dump money in it compared to buying MU when it has run up a trillion%

SaaS is still majorly discounted right now. I'm buying that over trying to jump on the top of the semi hype. We'll see a shift soon, market is always cyclical

Stock value is not driven by sensible analysis, it's driven by vibes and hype. Word on the street is that Microsoft has nowhere left to grow and is likely to become continuously less relevant. How substantiated that is by the data is unimportant, because investors believe it

>I just don't understand.

SaaS.

Microsoft's profit engine is SaaS, unlike most other big tech. The market is nervous about that. Right or wrong, that's the reason.

Markets don’t care about your feelings bro

Microsoft is "the" blue chip. You dont put $5-10k in MSFT and get mad. You put every penny you ever earn into MSFT and safely retire rich af.

just buy Tsm.

MSFT is still far behind on AI, and the implementation of AI into their software has been very underwhelming relative to capex. Future profits are likely to be lower because AI reduces the need for white collar workers, which reduces the number of subscriptions companies like MSFT can sell.

Because their software is hot garbage

The way they’re making money is what spooks people. It’s basically all in cloud computing which is highly competitive and/or SaaS which is currently reeling due to AI fears.

**Using NVIDIA = Losing AI Race** Microsoft and OpenAI lost the AI race by spending half a trillion dollars on slow and expensive NVIDIA hardware. No profits. Losing market share. Had to stop Sora. On the other side is Google with their TPU. The fastest and most affordable AI chip on Earth. Anthropic recognized the slow and expensive NVIDIA chips and started using TPU. Now they are the highest revenue AI and Google made $28B profit last quarter. Anthropic is 70% TPU and signed $200B compute deal. All companies using 100% NVIDIA are losing the AI Race - Coreweave, Nebius, OpenAI, Microsoft, Grok and Meta. The Future of AI is affordable, fast and heterogeneous AI hardware. Only Google and Amazon can do this.

I'm at a loss myself and why I abandoned MSFT and went back to just trading SOXX.

What if Mythos 2.5 or GPT 6 oneshots Excel?