MSFT가 왜 아직도 400달러대에 머물고 있을까? 🤔

It's me. Sorry guys I bought like 200 shares at 446$ when it crashed from ATH. So now it's more or less concrete-unbreakable wall for MSFT to break. Again, sorry for inconvinience.

It’s a hedge against overall market collapse from semis etc. I’d suggest buying calls on msft. It’s basically a synthetic put on semi’s with favourable asymmetry if semis keep going up.

Semiconductor parabolas. Seriously though... why buy Mag7 when you are guaranteed 5-10% on MU / AMD / MRVL / etc every day? Until semis plateau it's going to be hard for anything else to catch a bid.

Probably the biggest thing is stuck paying the massive Nvidia tax. But that is their own fault and you really have to wonder about how bad Microsoft is at vision compared to Google. Google did the TPUs in the open starting 13 years ago. It was NOT a secret. Google needs to be paying Sundar a heck of a lot more money compared to what Microsoft pays Satya. How can Microsoft be so stupid to not start a similar project? But it is the history of Microsoft. Internet comes and Microsoft completely misses it and Google kills it Then mobile comes along and Google absolutely kills it and again Microsoft completely misses. We are seeing the same damn thing again with AI.

Negative sentiment on reddit is raising, MSFT will hit ATH once people say only bad things about it.

Microsoft is just a disappointment, honestly. Anyone who works with Microsoft products for a career will tell you the same. They've consistently counterintuitively designed their operating systems to make it harder for users to navigate. They've forced OneDrive to back up your files to the cloud, even if you don't want it to. Outlook is a hotmess. There's (many) reasons why Internet Explorer lost the browser wars, Bing the search wars, and the mobile phone wars, but a big one is the company's culture and inability improve/adapt to the market demands. It's pervasive.

For fucks sake, they require a pin to be typed in to log in but there isn't even a keypad on the login screen. I grumble every time I have to click around to the accessibility button for the on screen keyboard or grab my physical keyboard to log in.

There's like zero innovation going on with Microsoft. Copilot is just ChatGPT and it's dogshit. It honestly feels like the people who design their shit aren't the end users because there's so many quality of life improvements they could make and they just don't. And they often have so many rounds of layoffs, the staff likely have low morale. 

They can rest on their laurels, no one is ditching their core Office products (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, etc.), and they are embedded into most IT workflows. But that doesn't mean it's going to take off like everything else in this space.

I think you've missed that the money will always go to the bottleneck. Previously it was nvidia, then it shifted to DRAM. Tomorrow it might shift to energy, hyperscalers or model providers. Who knows. I've tried to spread my investments over the whole supply chain and therefore I have to settle for a meager 110% gain the last 12 months.

I have shares at $440 and $510 sigh. At least meta is moving and my bag is lighter

In my opinion MSFT should never have been a PE 35 company (same with apple today). It was a bit overvalued 2024-2025 because openAI and chatGPT was hot for the moment and MSFT had an investment in that. Todays valuation is close to fair value given the capex uncertainty and growth estimates going forward. If you believe their capex will achieve a good ROIC in line with their historical ROIC then it's a buy for sure. It's really comes down to what you believe their ROIC for their capex will be. No one knows (which may present a buying opportunity).

Microsoft sucks and the future is going to consist of ditching Windows, ditching shitty azure, and getting rid of shitty microslop in general. Azure bills are about to be obscene In June with the new copilot billing, we shall see, but I ain’t touching this poop stock with a 10 foot pole. Wouldn’t be surprised if MSFT doesn’t exist in 30 years, they’re gonna be IBM in 10.

Many people are fed up with MSFT and switching to Linux. I'm not saying they won't bounce back, but user sentiment is at an all time low and it's easier than ever to switch off (consumer, not business).

Most of Microsoft money went to semis,so most people who invest just follow the money and went to semis

EU looking for alternatives… unclear yet how that impacts things.

Capex, bad products and, as someone mentioned - EU decoupling narrative.