AI로 주식 리서치해도 괜찮을까요? 🤖

AI is useful for stock research, but I think the best use is not asking it for a final answer. It is better as a research assistant that can summarize filings, surface risks, compare competitors, and challenge your thesis. The weak spot is exactly what you said: long-term direction and second-order effects. For that, I’d rather use AI to build bull/bear cases and then ask what evidence would prove each one wrong.

My issue with it is the level of hallucination that happens. If you’re researching, you really don’t know what you’re looking at. How are you gonna know that what it spit out as accurate?

Tesla 4/10? why not 0?

I use it but you have to verify everything , it will speak so extremely confidently on things it just makes up or estimates and even if you push back it doesn’t always correct itself by looking it up , it’ll double down . It also uses vague generalizations as axiom , it’s useful for understanding things at times but it’s got a lot cons to it that people including myself easily miss its errors

I think it's good for some questions. Like what % of all in cost mining is dependent on diesel vs electricity?

Any private equity sales upcoming?

Very specific questions that it can find answers too.

But you have to verify this shit.

Gemini has saved my life

AI tends to be condescendent, it agrees with you, it won't bomb you with negative feelings because it doesn't want to scare you away from using it. I have asked it about stocks and I have noticed a bias towards positive optimistic feedback.

I use it for data crunching with a tight leash on it and as a bit of a tool for speeding up the writing of my own analytical tools when I code. I'm currently working on using it to write a quantitative momentum strategy portfolio management tool and it's useful but all the ideas involved are still mine(and I started coding in 2017 so I could do this by hand).

AI has gotten pretty good but I'm deeply uncomfortable putting money into anything that I myself didn't create the thesis for. 

For megacaps it does alright. SMID caps, there are too little data for AI to ponder about.

It just recommends oklo to me

Yes as long as you check the outputs

It is a great tool but not "decision-grade intelligence," to borrow a term from Moody's. I think Moody's take on AI is a great way to think about it

https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/ai/decision-grade-intelligence-in-an-ai-driven-world.html

Ho provato con gemini ma dà risposte da prendere con le pinze, a volte le sbaglia, poi insiste nella sua tesi finché non gli carico la schermata e allora inventa scuse. Inoltre a volte gli prende la FOMO e anche in questo se glielo faccio notare avvia il suo ciclo di scuse.

Not unless you plug every single variable in manually. LLM tend to hallucinate a lot about current price, etc

I've used both Gemini and Claude to build out my trading strategy over the past 90 days. Both were great at helping me determine that at this point I'm a barbell trader. After A healthy amount of back and forth with what my goals and horizons are we've come up with an ironclad Constitution that I run each ticker through. The results are the stock pass my rules and are investable, they go to the bench waiting for a price drop, or they're exiled from my list. It also helps create tranches of limit orders to maximize returns on the exit from the position based on where institutions are likely positioning their walls of buy or sell orders.

My constitution works well for me based on my current financial plans and set up. Everybody's scenario will be unique to them and I definitely recommend spending some time figuring out what kind of strategy you want to use and then following it as closely as you possibly can with the advice of AI.

The problem with it is that you ask 10 times and get 10 different answers.

Also you cannot make the model assume "as if the year was 2013" since it was trained on all data available. The model can not assume, it is just a very good text generator that generates text, what lots of people find hard to understand I guess. GenAI is not intelligence, and as I said it can not assume. It was trained to minimize error (a loss function) and gives the most accurate answer possible.

Maybe start analyzing the fundamentals of LLMs first, then you can understand what they are capable of and what not.

As others and you have partially mentioned, as a research assistant it can be extremely helpful, you just really have to know about the models limits.

In the current environment very limited success I think. Right now the prices are way too headline driven.