90년대 닷컴 버블 시기 ‘버블론’ 주장 반박한 글 🧐

The author is Kevin Hasset. He is Director of the National Economic Council of the United States.Trump almost picked this guy for new fed chair.

I dont think its smart to try to time bubbles popping, but risk management is a sound strategy. Protecting your money is an underrated aspect of wealth building.

I wouldnt say Buffet tries to time bubbles, but he has always adjusted his asset distribution based on risk to reward ratio. When asset prices are very high, you've got a lot more downside risk than further upside, typically. 

So I wouldn't suggest going out and shorting the market or loading up on puts, but if you feel assets are super inflated, wouldn't be the worst idea to change your distribution to something more defensive.

Edit: And just to add to this, im referring to valuations. A market isnt in a bubble just because prices went up a lot more than you thought possible, earnings may have also climbed quickly. Im talking about when asset prices rise much higher and faster than their earnings

I can tell the top is near because I have a very strong urge I’m missing out. Also my 14yo and all his friends are investing and giving out stock tips.

So, the market is governed by fundamentals - a company's value is its assets and expected future earnings. Otherwise it's a bubble and to invest in a bubble is to embrace 'greater fool' reasoning. And deviating from fundamentals is guaranteed to fail eventually.

Has anybody figured out this theory explains housing values? Your residence is a non-productive asset that will never pay you dividends. You consider it an investment on the hope of appreciation, which is another way of saying a so-called 'greater fool' will buy it for more than you paid.

Fundamental analysis seems to ignore supply and demand, which is what ultimately determines prices - the economy needs a store of value (for things like retirement savings) which creates demand, and there are only so many viable companies which limits supply. So maybe everybody stock is to some degree a meme stock and will remain so past the end of my retirement?

So you're saying we have about another 6 months of insane profits to make?

I can live with that

So you're saying there's still 6 more months to rip

Over a long enough period of time, both the bulls and the bears are right.