항상 시장이 하락해야 할 이유가 있다는 이야기🧐

I'd wager that most people who are doom posting either panic sold and/or have been sidelined for some time, so it makes them feel better.

It’s just zoomers who have no cash so they’re butthurt asf they’re missing out on the gains.

Investor for over 40 years. The market is like a rising tide. There’s waves with peaks and troughs, but it is always creeping up. It has to. Valuations are based on earnings. And earnings rise at an exponential rate. At the end of the day, earnings drive the market.

If there's one thing investing has taught me, is that you have to be 100% unemotional to understand how the market moves. If you mix your personal feelings into it, you WILL get wiped.

This is exactly what keeps happening on Reddit. Reddit has a left and strong anti-Trump bias (I mean, so do I), in addition to being strongly anti-AI. So people keep hoping that Trump's actions will have dire consequences, or that the whole tech sector is gonna crash.

So when it doesn't, they come running here befuddled and asking how this can be possible, or they scream about market manipulation.

I suspect this is true even in regards to their own positions. They might have a NASDAQ or S&P500 ETF, but they're still hoping it'll crash because that'll prove their worldview.

If anyone can time the market without insider trading, they will be rich by now

I couldn't have said it better myself.

When retail “believes” the market “should be down” it simply gives institutions free money by easily short squeezing retail. The reason being retail purchases have scattered limit sells and thinner psychological barriers to break.

Not only MM buys longs when retail shorts to stay neutral, hedge funds can just push for a quick mini short squeeze which evidentally looks like “why the hell is the market green when it should he dropping”, once retail dries up on shorting thats when the real market drops.

The fact that everyone is saying the market will go down today tells me that the market will crash today, or go up. I can't say anything for sure.

There's one thing you haven't yet considered my friend.

This time.

This time is different.

Also cause there is predictable volatility occurring and the right bet on a big swing can be enormous. So if you can boost your odds through a bit of narrative boosting then I suppose this approach could be profitable.

The point is that at current valuations (the Shiller PE is at 40) it would take 14.5 years of 7% earnings growth for the PE to go back to the historical average without the price moving.

Teturns come from revenue growth, change in the share count, change in the margin, change in the PE multiple and dividends.

If the Shiller PE goes from 40 back to 15 over 15 years then that's a 6.33% headwind to your returns. That means that if earnings grow by 6-7% (alongside the money supply) you'll make 0%. I don't see how margins can go up from here, consumers are already struggling and the measley 1.2% S&P500 dividend is nothing.

I am saying all of this while still investing in stocks. I just don't think the S&P500 index and most companies in it will do well. Walmart is growing at the rate of inflation and is at 40x earnings. Do you think it's going to go to 80x ? If not then you're probably looking at negative returns over the next decade and a half. They can't pull out growth out of their ass, the business is mature and the industry is saturated.

You think the market has always been objectively overvalued? Is that what you really think?