투자자들, 버핏 지표가 걱정되시나요?📉 과대평가가 가져올 영향과 대응법은?

Would Warren Buffet himself ask the average person to pay attention to the "Buffet indicator"? Or would he perhaps ask the average investor to continue buying the S&P500 as long as they still had a long term mindset?

Let's put it this way. Show an indicator that stocks are NOT heavily overvalued.

No, nor the Schiller P/E. I'll continue to invest in indivdual names. If a theme gets too far ahead of itself, I'll trim or remove. If growth goes out of favor, I'll move towards value. If the playbook requires changing, I'll continue to try to adapt.

People point to these sorts of metrics and randomly decide one day that "IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE" then three years later it's more expensive. I remember people going on about the Schiller p/e on here 4-5 years ago.

I would not be surprised if 5 years from now people new to the market are envious of people who were able to invest during this time frame, but in the meantime it does me no good to continually try to call tops.

"Does this mean the common advice to invest in something like US 500 or VOOG on the long term and forget about it should be taken with a grain of salt?"

I think someone can still invest in indexes and largely forget about it, but perhaps there are times when someone might want to consider RSP instead of VOO, more international or other tweaks. I would suggest perhaps focusing the buying when the market is oversold - like in March - rather than after it's ramped significantly.

In terms of random metrics, I find something like this more interesting than Schiller p/e: HD has been 25%+ off the high while the S&P is within 0.5% of all time highs three times: September 2000, May 2007 and now - but even that wouldn't be the sole factor in making investment decisions.

If you're talking Market Cap over GDP, not in the slightest.

It's an old school view from a domestically minded person. It made sense when America was a manufacturer. But now so much of what makes up the massive profits of American global tech and social media companies is excluded from the American GDP calculation. Thereby keeping the denominator low, while the market caps will continue to grow. Plus it's skewed by a few companies.

It's all but irrelevant.

Makret go brrrrr or something like it. Ill short it

Yes, but it's not just the Buffet indicator, many measurements are concerning. Check out www.currentmarketvaluation.com

Diversify.

No

This market is not allowed to fail lmao. Boomers assets will be protected. Should anything happen FED will print more money like always. They might even buy companies debt lol.

The United States stock are international now. They are making profit from the whole world. So it should be to the whole world's GPD. So it still has a lot of room to grow.

My broker is. They are moving my funds away from tech. 🤷‍♀️