지금 AI 광풍 — 닷컴 버블 2.0일까, 본질적으로 다른가? 🤔

During the dot com times beating China in websites wasn't a question of national security

NOBODY KNOWS STOP WITH THESE POSTS PLEASEEE!

fundamentally different.

AI is real huge and will change the world as we know it in the next 3-10 years completely. Especially the Job markt.

Anyone who knows the answer to this is going to get really rich based on that information. The rest of us can only guess.

Probably something in between but closer to a legitimate platform shift. How long that will actually take is the real question though.

There is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars spent on this this year. Build a hundred data centers, you build a hundred facilities where everything in it is going to have an upgrade cycle or need replacing. Spending begets spending. Eventually capex will start to come down but I think even then will remain elevated vs history. Mega cap tech names are now going to be some degree of asset heavy companies.

This sub has continually tried to call the top for a while now. I remember in 2023 when people were saying on here to invest in PYPL instead of NVDA because NVDA was up a lot and PYPL was cheap. There has been more attempts at top calling on here than idea generation as people have largely kept piling into mega cap tech rather than where mega cap tech is spending.

When mega cap tech companies come out with earnings and more than one had capex that was 40-50B above estimates, I don't know why people would be looking for the exit in the near-term. You talk about fundamentals - there are stories where companies absolutely can't meet demand.

Eventually this will end - I have no idea when but it's not when estimates have capex for a company like Google at $120B and they come out with $175-185B (vs about $90B the year before.) I do have a general idea of a best case scenario on how this cycle ends and a worst case, but like most things in investing it will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Do I think that AI justifies the massive spending? Whether I do or don't it doesn't matter as long as the spending continues. If you start to see one or more mega caps suddenly halt/curb spending, if you start to see demand met in some of these stories, etc then you re-assess.

Ai hype? Lots of stocks dropped within last few week 15% lol

If you're interested in this, look into P/E ratios and other objective value metrics during the dot com bubble, and compare them to valuations now.

Look at specific sectors and different market caps (example: Google and MSFT and NVidia, NBIS and Coreweave, Figma and Bigbear AI, TSM and Monolithic Power). Some of these may be in bubble territory while others pretty objectively aren't.

Read some articles of better informed people than reddit.

Draw your own conclusions, and let us know what you find. We'll all be better informed for it.

Thats the question aint it? Nobody can answer this definitively and people from both camps are using it to inform their decisions.

Personally I think llms (the tech behind ai.) Is an overblown search engine that will hit a wall with its capabilities. But that probably wont be realized for a bit. Ai has minimal short term direct revenue sources, many companies in polls have admitted that they aren't using Ai as much as people think, and companies who jumped the shark to fire people are now encountering issues with Ai cause it has no ability to stop itself it just wholeheartedly believes in itself

I think it is different, because everyone are comparing about them. This time the capital market (bond/bank) will be much more cautious than the last time, and the bubble will not be the same. In fact, I think we will under invest, not over.

Alan Greenspan hiked rates 4 times before the crash, we are in a rate cut cycle. Massive difference

This is dumb.

Its not the dot Com bubble because thats was unique, just like this is unique

It is like the dot Com bubble because we have companies promoting and sinking money into a product that literally cannot justify the billions pored into it. It cannot be as useful as CEOs pretend it is. We have a economy where the big players are passing around money and calling it profit, but the actual profit is not exactly there.

Eventually AI will become more and more useful and profitable as it becomes better, but that is not now. Just like the internet became extremely useful and profitable, it just took more time

who promotes ai, and what lies used those ppl in the past?

My neighbor says he listened to a podcast about a company that has 1 person + several AI members with proper names.

One morning they start saying how tired they are from partying the night before!

Dot com bubble? There never was one

Huge companies from back then are now massive and worth a 100x more


It’s just small and developing companies that get „popped“. Name me one behemoth from back then that got erased and I’ll name you 10 that are now way more worth than back then.

September and October of last year was a bubble for AI/data-center related stocks. Practically everything related was riding high. Once the bubble fears emerged it didn't so much pop as deflate over the next few months, with many of those stocks dropping 50% or having stagnant range-bound growth, while some have rebounded and continue to grow. There are numerous distinctions between this cycle and the Dot-com bubble. But that doesn't mean there aren't significant risks. This narrative will continue to evolve as the challenges of shortages, power, security, and implementation continue to roll out and cause disruption.

Please use the search option to look at the million other posts on the same topic.

If not, just ask AI to summarize it for you.

During the dot com bubble, many of the companies without solid and consistent monetiziation plans were getting high valuations all based on potential. For many, the potential never panned out. Companies who had no business going public were doing so because they could sell the IPO high and there hope was try and cash out ASAP.

But the AI boom is different because the large majority of winners are long established companies with long track record of profit and success. AI has just given then a further runway. Remember during the pandemic there was a lot of chip shortage talk before the AI boom? It isn't just specifically AI market. It's also about the world going digital, electric, connected and "smart".

Look at your TSM AMAT LRCX ASML ADI AVGO SNPS CDNS KLAC TER MPWR - these stocks started their upwards trajectory way back in 2017-18-ish timeframe and haven't let up.

Yes. Unless no. Also maybe. Perhaps. 

There's no bubble.