📉 주식 시장 타이밍, 정말 불가능할까?

Thank you Senpai.

Could you please provide an indicative one year time period for the next crash?

Of course you can time the market. Anyone can do it. Otherwise charts and technical analysis wouldn’t exist. Headlines and macro would never drive the markets if they meant absolutely nothing.

But investment professionals don’t want you to because they want you to stay invested in their mutual funds/ETFs. I work in the investment industry so trust me when I say that fund managers hate people timing the market. They need as many active long term investors as possible.

That’s how they make their money, from having as many people invested as possible, for as long as possible.

Two problems here. If you take your money out a YEAR before a crash, then you have no guarantee that actually you wouldn't have made more money by remaining invested for that year and letting the crash hit you than you would be sitting on cash over the same period. E.g. I have $100, I can remove it and keep $100 for a year, or I can leave it in and say it goes up to $150, then crashes by a huge percentage all the way down to $110. I still made 10 more dollars by remaining invested. Since you don't know how bad the crash will be, you don't know which is the better play.

Secondly, it is much easier (though still very uncertain) to guess that a crash might come in 1-2 days. Knowing a crash will come in a year is practically impossible. So your advice is both wrong and useless

Sounds like you’ve missed out on gains and now the cope has commenced

What if it doesn’t crash in 5 years?

For me timing the market means when ford drop 3% in a day I buy a bunch, wait for it it go up, and sell. If it stays low I’m making good dividends. Repeat process with other high dividend stocks like Verizon.

You cost yourself money trying to do this. No thanks.


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Yes you can definitely "time the market" but it's just an advice to not do so. You simply cannot predict the future.

>A single year of gains prior a crash means very little

i beg to differ...

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI\_World#/media/File:MSCI\_World\_Price\_Index\_-\_History\_1969\_-\_2020.svg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI_World#/media/File:MSCI_World_Price_Index_-_History_1969_-_2020.svg)

Yea you can time the market. There’s issues with it however.

Firstly, you need to time the market twice. Both before the crash and before the recovery. Plenty of people pulled everything out in January 2025 and avoided that drop. Then never went back in. We’re now up on the high before that drop.

Secondly, most analysis of people timing the market has shown were pretty shitty at it. People consistently putting money into the market and DCA each month best those timing the market, even those who time it well! Because all those gains in the months they spend out of the market the DCA people get returns on, whereas those timing and sitting out of the market get the returns when they’re in and if they time it well reap that big upswing. At the cost of losing out on all those months or years or returns.

Look, I trade individual stocks, I even time the market (poorly) with some of my funds. My main investments which are just going in each month and into a wide index are still beating me on % returns.

Unless you DCA into the market, time the exit, time the entrance well, you’re probably better off just sitting in the market.

And for 99.9% of investors that’s probably the best theyre going to get.

Agree. Personally on Reddit I advise USA stock investors who want to invest in stock for the first time to just buy bond for now and wait until the next major stock collapse before going in. Patience is Virtue.

I have a principle: I don’t buy a company if its P/E ratio is too high or if the price is too far from its fair value.

I also invest only in companies that generate revenue and have strong growth prospects. For me, it’s more important to make small, consistent profits than to chase large, quick gains, because that can lead to my money being tied up or even lost.

Thinking long term is essential, and time is a crucial factor in investing.

Also, if I wish a compani and its price is high, I don'w buy it and I try to find another one with a correct price.

I agree. If you have cash to buy at the bottom you can get some really good deals on value stocks and then just ride them up for the next ten years or more.

Of course you can, but it's not for everyone. We had a great opportunity three weeks ago. Just don't braindead DCA, wait for pullbacks and you will make it far better.