재생에너지에 투자하는 건 '당연한 선택'일까? ⚡

In all my years of investing, “no brainer” has always been wrong

Why don’t you look at the last time oil and gas spiked up in 2022. Surely Renewables surged right?

Wrong.

They went down in value. Why? Interest rates increase when commodities increase, and thus future earnings are discounted less, and cost of borrowing increases. These factors far far outweigh the fact that these companies may get 10-20% more contracts.

Solar seems obvious with all the data center needs. Doesn't make it a good trade though

If youre investing in solar than put it on your house and take the reduced electricity bill. Otherwise dont invest in the etfs due to changing government policies.

Emerging / developing economies that have transitioned to solar are far less impacted by thr current strait crisis. Only thing this crisis has done is pushed up the timeline towards EV adoption + hybrid solar / battery systems in countries. The US, on tbe other hand, seems to be going backwards

Why wouldn't you invest in the resource that is going to get extremely scarce?

The only loss I ever took was in renewables. Not entering with the Trump administration still alive.

I feel like the following should be obvious but isn't said enough: There is a difference between an idea or even a company and a stock. The idea may be good, the company may even be something you would like to invest in, but the stock itself could be a bad investment - moat, valuation, risk/return, etc

I feel like the political headwinds against renewables are just too strong to predict with any confidence. If this regime gets pushed out, then maybe it becomes a “free-er market” or whatever that means in this subsidized space.

I invested in ICLN in 2020 when Biden was elected and it lost 30% of its value

No I got killed in that sector.

China has gone all in on renewables and they pretty much have the world by the short and curlies, so I'd say yes.

If by no brainer you mean you’d have to have no brain to invest in it, then yes!!! I invested in ICLN in 2020 when it seemed like there was going to be a big push for renewables. Major bust. Scarcity drives market prices up and renewables aren’t scarce…they’re renewable. I wish there was a market for renewable energy because I truly believe that’s what the world needs, but oil just has a strangle hold on the market as it is and this war isn’t going to change that.

don’t….

Any “No Brainer” as you say, will usually have the ol hidden text. Trust your gut, but not blindly.

lol this guy clearly has no idea what’s been happening in the renewable energy sector last two decades.

When I first started putting money into my Roth in 2020 I started positions in TAN, PBW, FAN, ICLN. Those positions were high and mighty when Biden was first elected, perhaps in anticipation for the green new deal.

Most of my positions are still green (TAN isn’t, but has been doing better recently) but if I was to approach this again, I might’ve just picked a few companies I felt confident in and/or sell on highs.

I believed (and still do in some senses) that green energy would be inevitable, and value in these sorts of ETFs would have a generally upward momentum year by year.
Maybe if the US elects another Democrat with “green” intentions these ETFs will get a nice boost again, but I might close out my positions at that point. I don’t think either side of the aisle is taking climate change seriously enough, and especially Republicans although of course politics is just one influencing factor here. But generally I’d be afraid of another move back into the red on year long scales and either would want to manage this more closely, or invest in areas I’m feeling more confident

Just bought EV charging ticker CHPT. Around $5.00 a share NIO seems compelling. Bought 200 shares to write covered calls. Didn’t check the options chain like I should have, but will see when I get on my computer later this evening.

You would think so.. but I am learning that even if people want it and it makes sense the rich billionaires determine what is and isn’t allowed or valuable. They just buy of politicians and companies etc etc

In normal times, yes, but what's to stop new legislation on top of existing counter to renewable from dampening that growth because it threatens Bi Oil? Solution is getting Big Oil to change and I thought they actually were headed in that direction.

We still need oil for items such as plastics and rubber but not to heat our homes and run our machinery. Been researching LFP batteries and there's hope although lower density energy it's safer and cheaper to produce. Going to need greedy to find this appealing for it to work, however.