🧐 이란 전쟁에 대한 주식시장의 오판 가능성

The number of doom and gloom posts or media messaging far outweighs positive ones. This alone shows that people are cautious and skeptical, which rarely leads to a massive crash you are all calling for. Been through 2000, 2008, 2020, and TACO. Until buyers completely disappear, market will not crash.

The entire economy was hanging by a thread before as valuations detached from the real economy, this is just an example of what happens when you keep artificially pushing markets to ignore reality. Which means one thing, the crash is going to be something we have never seen before. It wont be history repeating itself It would be new levels of crash

What's different now is how many people through pensions and general investments are in funds, and will stay in funds. The top companies remain the top companies too, so stonks go up

I think the main difference with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that there is a reasonable chance of de-escalation and a return somewhat close to the status quo in the short/medium term, aside from the damage to oil/LNG infrastructure which will take longer to resolve.

Listened to an oil analyst today who essentially made the argument that: 1) The straight remaining closed into the beginning of May essentially guarantees a recession 2) Trump will do anything to avoid a recession 3) Therefore it makes sense for the markets to rally because Trump will capitulate to avoid a recession. In other words, the consequence of failing to build a durable peace within the next 11 days are so severe he will do anything to avoid it IMO that's wild, because: 1) Trump may TACO, but gun against your head do you really trust Trump to understand the gravity of the situation and have the diplomatic chops to guarantee an agreement in the next 11 days 2) Israel is all-in on regime change, because all the war has done is embolden Iran with a new geopolitical tool (ex. want to "mow the lawn" in Gaza or Lebanon next year? boom Hormuz closed again), and virtually guarantees they will rapidly develop a nuclear weapon during any peacetime scenario I can't see the likelihood that Trump both forsakes Israeli interests and being focused enough to come to a deal with Iran is so high you should be *rallying* rather than pricing some kind of risk of severe downside Previously Trump has unilaterally TACOed to avoid stock market collapse, but this time it takes 3 parties with wildly different objectives to come together on a strict time frame that only matters to 1 party. I just don't see the optimism

Everything you listed, the market already knows about that. They aren’t exactly secrets. The market has just chosen to look ahead as always.

So fucking funny how everyone was acting like the bull market was 100% back on this past week, even though them saying the strait was now “open” was very fucking clearly about their 5000th lie in a row, and now all that positivity and optimism is completely gone and people are saying the worst crash ever is coming again😂 Who could have possibly seen this coming??/s

There won’t be a crash

If people are constantly posting about a market crash, there won’t be a market crash.

There’s so much manipulation and insider trading that I come to figure whatever I think is the right move , the exact opposite is 90% of the time correct. So now anytime I have a hunch I bet against it. Up 73% this year.

AI slop for mindbroken doomscrollers

Saudi Arabia has literally been shipping out the same amount of oil as pre war. Just from the other side of the country lol