📈 유가 상승이 경제를 무너뜨리진 않는다, 왜냐하면 지금은 석유 의존도가 사상 최저이기 때문이다

The economy is not the stock market. Oil going up will definitely affect the real economy as history has shown how sticky even "transitory" inflation can be, and because many companies will have to eat increased costs to not lose market share.

any time in history?


...*any*?

We don't use oil like it used to - correct. Being said we are still heavily reliant on it - global oil consumption is at an all time high

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-country?time=2024

Diesel runs the economy. EV hasn't even begun to touch its place in society...

Bullshit

Not a great take, my guy.

There's no doubt we're less reliant. But you're making an absolute call (won't crush the economy/equities) while using a nuanced claim on it's change in dependency.

Likewise, the market/economy has adjusted to oil being where it has been post shale boom. Anchoring to the brief 2008 spike doesn't seem like a great way to analyze it IMO.

Your average person is living paycheck to paycheck. Roughly 60% of the US and we are still a heavily consumer dependent economy.

With that said, when average people are spending more on gas, less money to spend on consumerism. This means business and the economy will suffer. The degree to which it will, to be determined. But the longer the straight is closed, risks and pressure is rising.

Let’s even take this another step forward. I often hear this doesn’t affect tech and AI. Oh yes it does. Hyperscalers like Meta and Amazon are maxing out their capex.

When consumers spend less, Amazon gets lets revenue, means less capex. Meta is same thing. Advertisers spend less because consumers spend less. Meta gets less revenue from advertisers and that means less capex.

I’m not claiming a recession is coming. But pressures and risk is rising, along with the whole AI infrastructure buildout.

👍

Trucks carry food. Trucks use diesel. Diesel go up in price. Food cost more.

Plane use jet fuel. Jet fuel goes up. Flights cost more. Company goes bankrupt. Now airline companies can charge more due to less competition.

Housewares and other goods made of plastic. Plastic made from oil. Oil goes up. Things cost more.

Most people not invested in stock market so oil barrel costs not beneficial.

See world still use lots of oil. Stock market not economy.

Simple for you to understand?

> Liters of oil used per $1,000 of GDP has dropped from 110 in 1990 to 65 today. And that figure continues to drop. 


That doesn't say anything directly about what an oil shock would do though, all it tells you is we use it more efficiently.