왜 2008년 이후 지속적인 약세장이 없을까? 📉

Back in 2022, it took 7-8 months from a peak in Jan to Oct for the market to drawdown 20% due to high oil prices from the Russian invasion and increasing interest rates.

Covid should have been one but we printed ourselves out of it. If we didn’t have ai hype from 2023-present we would have had one as well. That’s the only thing that’s been saving the market.

Because governments realized they can just print money and bail out the market and the economy.

Because the US government has been able to dump cash in the economy to continuously boost demand without severe sustained inflation. It's not exactly hard to do when you run the world's reserve currency. It's part of the exhorbitant privilege.

The long-term concern is that as foreign nations diversify away from the USD, each additional unit of currency added to the economy will cause higher inflationary pressure, as international demand isn't there to meet the increased supply.

And as inflation creeps up, the government will have 2 and only 2 choices: 1) lower spendings, which the US economy as a whole is severely tied to or 2) print their way to hyperinflation. Option 2 is almost guaranteed as consumption-addicted Americans will never elect anyone who proposes austerity...

Because Central Banks and the big boys who run the entire "system" found themselves close to the entire illusion of money and economy collapsing in 2008 and just kicked the can further down the road by pumping the system with trillions via quantitative easing

There has been!  From January to Sept in 2022, the SP500 dropped 25%

Inflation adding money into the system.

Retail adding money into the system since they can trade on Robinhood now.

Increased dependance on IRAs and 401ks for retirement.

Decreased home ownership causing people to look for other investment opportunities.

Increasing retail debt.

US tech boom and energy independence fueling increase productivity and decreased expenses.

Because the first sign of a downturn they drop rates and starting printing money, they don’t care about inflation, it’s good for the rich and good for our debt….

Where were you in 2022?

Because Wall Street always gets a bail out

08 hit housing the hardest. Then it became irrationally underpriced for 10Y, before the pendulum swung back.

So despite the bubble, housing has been shielded, mainly because of an anomaly in boomers being the wealthiest and longest living generation, and anybody who was able to buy/loan property between 2010-2020 basically got a free crib (low interest rate on top of it).

Disproportionally less new expensive mortgages, most US buyers were scared away from variable interest (for good reason in the unregulated US), and most properties are actually paid off. Whatever hot-spot development booms happened, were bought by people with lots of equity or proven income. You have like… 2Y of “underwater” mortgage holders at best, which is nothing.

So again, 2008’s market and housing crash created this giant hole for investors to jump into. Now a lot of more mature and elaborate investors are basically waiting for the next hole, but they’re sitting on secure investments. 

Cash, property heavy. Lots of leveraged risk. An admin poised to help the 1-10% income class the most. Anti-trust laws chucked.

Honestly, if you’re worth less than $100K (living month to month), you have been and will continue being in a sustained depression. No savings, equity, just waiting for that big medical procedure to bankrupt you. Job market will continue contracting.

Meanwhile, stocks have been more disconnected than ever the last 10Y. The long sustained low interest rates created a cash-rich big tech class that has the most wealth of any global entity in the history of the world. In went from a wink-wink investment class to a money laundering mafia service. Of course it’s a safe harbor, having your savings parked in some Big 7 ticker, but you’re benefitting 0.0000001% as much as the top-heavy investors. If the big whales have so much money in it, why would they pull out and create a crash and lose their own equity? They can just withdraw as needed to continue growing this feudal cash market.

A housing crash is what hits main street the hardest. Then you start seeing the shanty shacks on your ex- neighbor’s property and a huge uptick in crime and loitering. But like I said, the conditions are more ripe for investors to sit on vacant or discounted rental properties, and so long soul sucking gigs are around, people can scrape together 1K a month to pay the rent.

Commercial real estate should’ve crashed, but it won’t, because they’ve rigged it to be too big to fail. It’s a convenient money laundering scheme for shell companies, including our prez.

Covid: Am i a joke to you?

Because people like to eat.

>As the stream of bad news

You’re feeding too heavily into finance newscast running 10 hours straight daily, often trying to explain what happens after the fact

Earnings in most cases are at all time highs. Multiples haven’t gone completely insane (again, in the most part). If anything I feel some stocks like Meta are pretty muted compared to them shattering profit records, big capex sure, but also hugely growing profits so why not


There is no bad news(yet), that’s why everything feels so different now. For the first time since Covid it actually feels like profits could go down

Agree with your point, definitely other factors as well. QE/Debt, the prevalence of index funds/passive investing, other investments vehicles either not returning as much or too unaffordable to obtain, are a couple others off the top of my head.

Because of the increase in retail traders, of course, supporting the market and assuming most of the risks and losses (I'm half joking).

Inflation...

We're at the start of one

As others have pointed out: because we haven't let it happen. The government has stepped in several times over the last 6 years to prevent any sort of bear market (whether or not that was their explicit intention).

Popsicle sticks and duct tape holding up a catastrophe waiting to happen