왜 지금 Adobe 주식은 좋은 매수 타이밍이 아닐까요? 🤔

I bought a couple of days ago. I've been working as a 3d generalist / technical artist last 4 years and just realized that it is very difficult to get out of the adobe eco system and the valuation is low-ish.

AI coming for their lunch.

Adobe products are tools. AI doesn't need any of those tools and AI is making a massive dent, an almost hole in the industry that buys Adobe products. AI has a high potential to kill dead the industry that buys Adobe products. I would stay a long mile away from Adobe.

There's definitely uncertainty how much AI is going to disrupt them, which means it is higher risk when forecasting fundamentals. Investors are demanding a lower valuation or a higher rate of return for the risk. I don't think it's binary, it's not like AI will replace everything Adobe currently sells. However, it is very likely that they will need to reconsider their existing business model against new industry entrants. The valuation premium Adobe used to have is not likely to return in my opinion, it's a big call to make. You have to argue that there are not many better alternative services today, similar to the pre-AI period. You can't dismiss risk of disruption. Their ability to raise prices and retain existing customers is weaker (moat). However there will be good value in this business at some point, I just don't think 15 P/E is particularly compelling or exciting. It's hard, there's no right answer, that's why everyone argues about it on reddit.

It is a great buy now. If it drops, you buy more. You hold the bag until it goes up 2-3x, or more.

it is

The problem is AI and when you think about it, sure there could be a legitimate risk. Too many unknowns right now. But there are more AI-proof businesses I would say. Example Workday and CRM. AI can make a workday with better UI -> people could do this for years, yet it remains. CRM is trash, anyone can Claude Code a better thing -> companies could also hire 5-10 people to make their own Salesforce alternative in the last 10 years, but they didn't. These businesses are bad, can be run by anybody, and are really sticky. Adobe, imo is also more AI-proof than people think, but ofcourse there is a lot of room for being wrong

Not trying to be mean or rude, it was trading below $230 just two weeks ago, any reason why you did not like it back then? What has changed in these 2 weeks that it looks like a better deal now after it gained more then 10%? As a disclaimer - I did buy it after their drop post last earnings at the similar price. I could not add more as it dipped further. Now it is trading at my cost level.

I mean, it might be or it might not be. If you subscribe to the theory that AI is going to displace adobes core products and services then its a value trap and will probably continue to fall much further. Meanwhile if Adobe ends up just leveraging AI by incorporating more of it into its own product portfolio to increase functionality and sales, and fears over vibe coded software competition are way overblown then its a screaming buy right now. Knowing which way it will actually go is anyone's best guess.

when's the last time you used an adobe product?

I’m long and I’d buy more. For enterprise customers, there’s really no other great alternative. It’s not just photoshop, but also tools like WorkFront and Firefly.

I once believed adobe was a buy. No longer. I believe this is going to die with the rest of saas

How can you simultaneously not be able to come up with even a story (let alone a valuation) and think it's a "great buy"?