🧠 오픈AI가 망하면, MSFT에 호재일 수도 있을까요?

I’ve been buying the dip. Up to just shy of 3000shares. Dip is complete over reaction.

Edit: for reference, wmt, cost, wm, all have substantially higher PE than Msft despite being substantially less profitable with less avenues for growth. Even KO has a higher PE

People talk about the recent downtrend. MSFT is up 71% over the last 5 years and about 85% off the 2023 low. One could have done a lot better in a number of other things during that period, a number of which are more boring.

CASY is up 225% over the last 5 years. A mostly rural chain of gas stations has outperformed a fair amount of the Mag 7. Phillip Morris, Waste Management/Republic (garbage stocks), Walmart/Costco, etc.

I'm not saying Microsoft is a bad company, but there is a point where enough years go by and if you look around some of the Mag 7 aren't working as well as they used to be and haven't for a bit.

In terms of tech, what continues to work are where these companies are spending, not as much who's doing the spending. Also, when you build a massive fleet of data centers, does that spending ever truly end/slow much? New chips, new cables, new etc etc etc - for years to come. Is the prospect of investing in a now increasingly asset-heavy Microsoft a different story than it used to be going forward?

IMO, too many people "collect 'em all"-ing Mag 7 because of what they've done over time but I just think if you feel you have to invest in mega cap tech, maybe best one or two ideas.

What if openai doesnt go bankrupt but diversifies its cloud usage.

Recent headline of AMZN considering 10B investment comes to mind.

OpenAI going bankrupt would cause MSFT to tank even more, let’s be honest.

However, **Microsoft isn’t an AI company**. Let’s also get that out of the way. They’re well diversified and are a global leader in cloud infrastructure and software as well as in AI investment.

They also had fantastic earnings. It’s funny how that’s totally ignored.

**Q2 2026 (Oct–Dec 2025): Total revenue was $81.3 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year. Gross margin dollars increased, with 17% growth in Productivity and Business Processes.**

The problem is that the AI bubble is first and foremost on every serious investors mind. Will it pop? Maybe. Will it be soon? Maybe.

The point is it’s a big but temporary headwind that’s not even a headwind yet, and it will continue to affect every tech stock, MSFT included. If it doesn’t pop soon, the market will forget about it, remember the killer earnings MSFT had and it’ll bounce like it usually does.

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Openai wont go bankrupt. Including ads on near 1 billion users will prevent that. They have like half a billion weekly users.