🍎 애플(AAPL) 주가가 크게 하락할 위험성, 과소평가된 걸까?

Dude

Its appl

If you have to question the moat they have- you really dont understand how companies and stocks work.

Its one name that is a juggernaut with a customer base that is not leaving

The new cheap macbook will sell like hotcakes

I love Apple for many reasons. One of those reasons is that it has consistently proved this sub wrong over and over again for multiple years at this point.

You've looked at their macro and micro environment, but neglected their actual financials.

Doing a take on a stock means you owe it to yourself to analyze everything about them. Be complete, be rational, be empirical, make data-driven conclusions.

1. Is it a cash cow? Yes.

2. Do they have cash? Loads.

2. What are cash cows doing right now? Not losing their value.

Always look at financials.

How is AAPL more expensive when comparing to other mega tech? They are as much of a software company with 25% of their revenue coming from services and it is the fastest growing segment of their business. Nothing is replacing iPhones any time soon and you need a smartphone to do anything these days. Why should they have a multiple lower than Walmart or Costco?

Mac Studios and Minis are flying off the shelves for local AI inference - they can't sell those fast enough, and there is a waitlist now. When the M6 chip comes out, it'd even more relevant. And the Neo is killing it in the lower-end PC market.

I really hate these "analysis" focusing only on like iPhone cycles, etc. as if that's all Apple does. "Overvaluation" by what standards when you have some tech companies trading at 60x PE. Even then, with 2.5B devices out there and super loyal/satisfied customers and robust ecosystem, Apple has a deep moat. And $111B stock buyback? That's a shareholder wet dream (providing equivalent of roughly 2.5% yield without triggering tax events). And they did all that without the AI hype -- imaging if/when they actually have local, private and secure AI you can run from your pocket? Suddenly you have a 2.5B install base (and growing) of AI machines that Nvidia and DELL can only dream of.

While everyone is chasing AI, semiconductors and Space stocks, Apple was "quietly" up by 50% the last 12mo without any significant news and AI breakthroughs. Compared that to Nvidia's 44% with all their fanfares and hypes and promises to the moon and back.

Not to say they don't have headwinds and challenges such as supply chain, memory shortages, tariffs, competitions, the perceived "AI problem," etc. that other tech companies are also facing. But the company itself is doing fine. More than fine.

AAPL is still great and will be for years to come. Buy and hold, this isn’t Wall Street bets 😂

AAPL is a free cash flow giant, and the premium valuation is mostly because of that. Their moat in personal computing is pretty much unbeatable. They’re the only company that own the full stack: best in class chips, OS, accessories, and brand reputation.

Yes, you're crazy.

Neo sales alone will be such a large talking point during the earnings call that it will overshadow other topics

You're focusing much too closely on fundamentals and not weighing sentiment enough 

You're not crazy imo, they're a little overpriced and I wouldn't be surprised if they pull back a little, but like another commenter said they should be stable in the long-term.

Yes, overvalued. But it won’t get repriced until investors move out of equities in general. If you are an insane person and 100% in equities, AAPL, COST, WMT, V, MA are the last stocks you sell. They ARE the risk-free asset in your insane all-stock world.

I think they've wasted considerably less dollars on AI than other big tech

AAPL has decided to sit out the insanity of the AI battles until the tech is more proven and figured out, but holds the gold standard platform that any AI would want to be the primary on. Much like Google Search or Maps. It's what they do. Apple has never chased the cutting edge, they wait for tech to prove out a bit then take a crack at it. Obviously they're not perfect (Vision Pro) but also the first version of a lot of their products have taken a couple versions moment to catch on, and they've probably got a fat margin on the Vision Pro anyway.

I was on the fence with Apple for a while but watching how these AI wars are turning out, I think they're actually just saving hundreds of millions/billions in unnecessary capex and AI training effort.

Honestly I think MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG are all solid holds right now. MSFT is the most questionable, but they've got a lot of strength in the cloud and AI could benefit that.

AMZN and GOOG both have STRONG internal plays for AI that doesn't require anything outside their internal capex, so even if the bubble pops, I think they've got a road to profitability with their AI directly; Amazon with logistical robotics and delivery, Google with Waymo and Android and a solid quantum play.

People have been saying Apple missed the AI boat, and I have to fundamentally disagree. Their first iPhone with a neural engine was 2017. Their integrated chip play is paying off massively. I myself use local models on what was a relatively inexpensive machine with 64gb of integrated memory. Just like the iPhone was a well-engineered machine that benefited massively from third-party software, the on-device AI boom has yet to even get started. There will be massive payoffs from this style of distributed computing.

Honestly I've been considering a position in Apple due in large part to them not going crazy on AI. Worst case they have the cash to buy a company to help them catch up if need be but I see them as an AI hedge when I think most of us already have a lot of AI exposure.