스페이스X IPO에 대한 개인적인 생각 🚀

This ipo is the only ipo where it’s a garage sale of every asset class and sector.

It’s simultaneously an ai company that bleeds money, twitter nazi media company and a space company that’s somewhat profitable.

There is crypto on the balance sheet. Hard assets including physical rockets. Chips and data center shit probably.

the craziest ipo ever. It’s Elon so it’s going to pump but I’m staying away.

Good time to be an active investor. SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI IPOs will force passive investors to buy at peak valuations. Indices will have minimal diversification from megacaps.

Not at current valuation lol

Well, you don't have to swing at every opportunity. Definitely one of the Buffett ideas that are still very relevant today.

Cash flow is not impressive at all. But the umbrella of companies that they’ve acquired and their IP and physical assets are difficult to appraise 

I’m going to just see how it plays out. Maybe buy some RKLB instead

$4B quarterly losses on $4B revenues for $2T, Alex. Bezos better start ordering those space datacenters he keeps talking about.

Based on the provided screenshot of the **Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA)** option chain and the current macro environment surrounding the blockbuster **SpaceX IPO** (with a target date slated for early-to-mid June 2026), here is the analysis of which call option strike price is most likely to be reached:
## The Underlying Setup
* **Current Stock Price:** **$36.42** (as shown at the top of the screenshot, down 1.01%).
* **Key Visual Indicator:** The screenshot features a black flag anchored exactly at the **$36.00** and **$37.00** strike boundary showing the current underlying price index at **$36.79** (fluctuating intraday).
* **Expiration Date:** **June 18, 2026** (labeled as Jun 18, 26), which captures the exact window of your target dates (**May 21, June 04, and June 12**) and perfectly aligns with the anticipated June 11–12 SpaceX public listing timeline.
## Strike Price Analysis
To determine which strike price open interest is **most likely to be reached**, we look at the Delta and proximity to the current price ($36.42):
### 1. The $36.00 Strike (In-The-Money / Already Reached)
* **Delta:** 0.5882 (approx. 59% theoretical probability of remaining in the money).
* **Analysis:** Because the stock is trading hovering right around $36.42, this strike price is **already reached**. It represents the baseline for the ETF heading into the IPO hype cycle.
### 2. The $37.00 Strike (The Immediate Catalyst Target)
* **Delta:** 0.5458 (approx. 55% theoretical probability of expiring in the money).
* **Analysis:** As highlighted by your active order selection bar at the bottom (NASA 260618 37.00C), this is the closest out-of-the-money (OTM) strike price.
* A move of just **$0.58** (+1.6%) from the current price will put this option contract in the money.
* Given that the **SpaceX IPO roadshow** and final pricing are expected to culminate between **June 4 and June 12**, any positive momentum or retail inflow into the NASA ETF (which holds pre-IPO SpaceX shares) makes this the absolute most statistically likely upside target to be breached first.
### 3. The $38.00 and $39.00 Strikes (The Hype Targets)
* **$38.00 Delta:** 0.5038 (~50% probability)
* **$39.00 Delta:** 0.4640 (~46% probability)
* **Analysis:** These strikes require a 4.3% to 7.1% upward move. While highly achievable during an aggressive IPO run-up, they carry lower mathematical probability than the immediate $37.00 level.
## Conclusion
The **$37.00 strike price** open interest is the most likely out-of-the-money target to be reached and breached between May 21 and the anticipated June 12 SpaceX IPO listing window. It requires a minor, highly feasible upside move of under 2% to become profitable.

Analysis provided by Gemini Ai.

It’s highly overvalued, I won’t even think about touching it until the lockup period ends and the stock finds some sort of stability. I’m gunna be brutally honest tho, I would like to own it one day. The pictures and videos I see makes me say “hey, I want to be involved with whatever that is.”

1. Space X is a real company that has real innovation, but that does not mean it justifies the valuation they are throwing out there

2. Yes they do but again that doesn't mean it justifies the multiple they are trying to trade at. Even government support is a finite resource. You know considering they pass a national budget every year, that money comes directly from tax payers and congress.

With that said, none of that means anything because none of Elon's stocks trade within reason of multiples of an actual valuation. Elon is the ultimate cult meme stock. Stock price does not dictate fundamentals especially in Tesla's case and we shouldn't believe it will dictate the scam that is known as Space X.

Just put your chips on the roulette table and stop trying to logic this "investment"