성장 빠른 기업이 고평가여도 신경 써야 할까? 🤔

Price to earnings is not telling me what a company is worth if I was to strip all of its assets and add up their individual values. I would also be more interested in the sales growth percentage and the earnings growth percentage per year.

A company with a PE ration of 8 with a negative earnings growth as well as a negative sales growth that pays a decent dividend is not a company I'd be interested investing in especially if the company is trading at a value that is higher than the company is worth.

One is a gamble and another is investment.
Plenty of hyper-growth companies can crumble and die, so you can just lose your money instead of eating unrealized losses for a few years.
Also while you're eating unrealized losses for a few years, you could just make steady growth with low risk by investing in companies that have already proven themselves.

If you believe the company can grow into its valuation. Then it’s not a bad bet. But the problem is most companies don’t.

People will point to Netflix and Amazon but those are outliers that survived and thrived. They had amazing management, execution and some luck. Not everyone will be like them.

For every Netflix and Amazon, there’s probably hundreds or thousands of failures like Peloton and zoom and others who couldn’t keep their growth rate.

pe ratio of xx" is not the problem, my entry was. "pe ratio of xx" is not the problem, my entry was. i bought a name at 40x sales once, it ran for months, then one small miss nuked it 35% in 2 days. now i only pay up when the trend is clean and my size is small. are you asking as a trader or long term holder?

To a reasonable degree no, but I do like to try to get into themes relatively early. I was one of the few people on here talking about data center power in early 2024. If something is expensively valued and up 1,000% in two years, I've missed out (maybe not entirely, but to a meaningful degree) and at that point any negative news (slight miss, etc) could be a real rug pull. That doesn't mean that I wouldn't potentially consider a position, but would be sized accordingly.

"But the story is always the same, the multiples compress sure, but the revenue keeps growing, the profits keep growing, the margins increase, the customer count / quality increases, demand increases etc."

Not always the same. It's easy for even low/lower quality stuff to get swept up in a popular theme and then stuff happens like what happened with POET yesterday where the stock is down almost 50% in a day because management is incompetent. Stuff like RSLV that people think is something because it has AI in the name.

Lot of stuff is a fad or temporary hype. Someone else mentioned Peloton. Rivan going public at a $100B valuation before they'd even sold a car because of an EV bubble within the larger 2020/21 growth bubble.

So yes, I will consider an expensively valued fast growing stock if I think it's still reasonably early and there's a lot of runway. I don't want a portfolio full of these though.