🇺🇸 미국 주식의 장기 전망, 계속 믿어도 될까요?

No one knows. Look at the history of the market going back 100 years and make your own assessment. I personally think those holding assets will win over time and I will continue to invest, if only to beat the rampant inflation.

DCA and time in the market beats timing the market... just hold and in 10-20 years this will be completely irrelevant

What I can tell you for sure is that in the medium to long term outlook the US stock market will either be up or down.

I mean take a little gander at S&P500 historic trending chart. You tell me if you think it’s gonna keep going up or not lol. Of course there will be pits and dips and whatnot, but people with long time horizons have been watching nothing but upward trending chart movement for decades now.

I am likely the most qualified person you’ll ever encounter to counsel you. If you pay more than a price to operating earnings ratio of 15, you are unlikely to reach your goals. The US PE is roughly 31. The average is 16, I believe. I didn’t look it up.

VXUS is around 17. Your rate of return if you don’t pay taxes is likely 1/17+2-3%. Roughly 8-9%.

You’ll likely be a great grandfather before you break even on US stocks.

If the US descends into civil war, your PE may be 12. The lowest PE was 5.5 for the market average.

Seems like emerging markets may be a good bet in the long term. Asia as US isolationism is ceding major industries & research to China. I’ve been trading for 50 years & never seen anything like the insider trading & graft that is going on now in the US. Our debt is out of control and getting worse daily.

I'm the same way 26 in school with 70k invested. With currency devaluation I found it wise to allocate 65% into gold, and 10% silver at the beginning of the year. If I were you I would diversify farther away from US stocks except for Defense. There's no shortage of spending there, and I think we are bound to enter another war either in Iran or Taiwan before the end of the year.

One day when you guys grow up uou will look back at the Trump years with the economy and realize that he has one of the best runs in both terms.

yooooooo. dump everything.

In 30-40 years when you are looking to retire, the 2020s will be largely irrelevant. You'll see the impact Trump has had on the long term graph, but that is about it.

As for the strategy, generally speaking it is optimal to do 60% domestic + 40% international, and this is true regardless of where in the world you live. Your other option is just go with VT for the whole world anyways and ignore it.

But for someone as young as you are, just shove however much into the market as is fiscally responsible and start stockpiling cash to buy a home and for emergency so you never have to sell your shares. Remember, the people who win at the stock market are frequently the people who forget their passwords and just let it ride for 30 years.

Diversify into some international holdings. International large cap outperformed the S&P in 2025. Not only is it a fine short term strategy, but allows for more diversification, but also more exposure to growth outside of the US. SCHF is a fine large cap international ETF that has low NER, and good performance.

Edit: Typo.. Meant SCHF. D and F are next to eachother on the keyboard. Take it easy.