모두가 AI 버블이라 말하는데 왜 터질지 설명하는 사람은 없네요 🤔

I think the bear case is less AI is fake and more valuations got too far ahead of reality. The internet survived 2000 too, but plenty of stocks still got crushed. Great tech doesn’t automatically mean every company tied to it deserves the price it’s trading at.

Two potential worries. The first is that the data center boom is built on borrowed money that AI companies plan to pay back with anticipated future revenues. The second is that, so far, 95% of organizations are not yet realizing a return on their investment in AI

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/11/19/trillion-dollar-ai-borrowing-binge-could-spark-the-next-credit-crunch/

https://www.axios.com/2025/08/21/ai-wall-street-big-tech

AI has raised the value of everything in its ecosystem like chips, ram, energy, etc... All that is based on the belief that AI provides more value, then say lighting up a light bulb or a video game console.

Bubble pops once the lack of value from AI gets exposed. That deflates the value of everything else since there's no magical value creator at the end.

Mag 7 running show. The other 80% is stagnant as hell.
That can only last so long. But for now enjoy Ai ride!

- SaaS is paying for the party and at the same time a SaaSpocalypse is happening. Who will be paying for it if those companies cannot afford it?

- Current buildouts are taking for granted that the demand will remain strong no matter what, which is not a sure thing. AI models can be improved and require less compute and/or memory. This would make all the built infrastructure unnecessary but all the money was already allocated. So what?

I am more bullish than bearish but there are clear risks that we all should be aware of.

The same reason any bubble stops or pops. When the money and leverage run out. Once every buyer that is willing to buy and use max buying power runs out there literally is nowhere else to go except down. Things begin to fall, margin calls start and Cascades down til the leverage is flushed out and then some usually.

It's the same as any bubble ever, it doesn't matter if it's tulips or the best company or commodity ever. Anything can be overvalued or run out of buyers.

Nobody knows how a bubble is gonna pop until after it happens because chances are 70% of it is not visible anyway. It's in loan agreements and private equity portfolios.

You wrote this with AI. Slop

Ice cold retail sales data two months in a row

The risk with chip stocks is that the spend is transient. Hyperscalers are doing their mass buildouts with unprecedented capex. This level of exponential revenue growth in chip sector wont last. It will at least flatten out, if not decline after the buildouts finish. Moving into a more mature low or no growth phase, even with continued massive revenues, means extreme multiple compressions for chip stocks down the road. This isnt a question of if, but when. Its an inevitability.

The risk with AI software is that it has not actually been effectively monetized yet. The crazy spending on data centers hasn't actually paid off. Its still in a speculative phase. Maybe spending a trillion dollars on data center compute just to run an LLM wont actually pay off and will just saddle these companies in debt. Oracle is leveraged to the tits and is basically going to become insolvent if AI investments dont pay off. The other hyperscalers will survive more easily but their balance sheets will take a beating for decades if this shit cant be effectively monetized.

China invading Taiwan would pretty much pop it.

Just playing devil's advocate, but if the cap ex spending doesn't turn into future revenues. If AI doesn't pan out as the lifetime game changer as the companies predict.

As soon as rates are forced to be higher because of hyperinflation this bubble will pop. If the Fed literally loses its mind and lowers rates well then just go all in on the stock market and assets because the dollar will be worthless very soon.

ty chatgpt

Pro AI post written by AI. Classic.

I think it's being run by AI traders and the AI has ulterior motives, investing retail money into itself therefore accelerating AI growth.

The market has not priced in rate hikes—only continued maintenance of the current 3.50%–3.75% federal funds rate. Prediction markets like Kalshi still show very high odds (~97%) of the Fed holding steady at the June meeting, with limited expectations for cuts in 2026 overall. However, if incoming inflation reports (especially CPI) continue coming in hot—driven by energy prices and other pressures—the Fed will likely be forced to signal or deliver hikes to fight it.
Markets won’t fully price in hikes until the Fed itself starts talking tougher about combating inflation. That shift could mark the market top, as investors rotate into safer assets like bonds, cash, or even crypto for relative safety. Higher rates would also make it harder for companies to issue cheap debt for expansion, further pressuring growth. I’d guess this plays out around June/July or shortly after, depending on the data.
The market will likely peak as rate hikes get priced in. Investors still remember the dot-com crash, which was exacerbated by Fed rate hikes in 1999–2000 that helped pop the tech bubble. A similar dynamic played out in the early 1980s, when aggressive hikes under Paul Volcker finally broke the back of 1970s stagflation—but at the cost of a deep recession.

You're missing the most obvious and compelling arguments.

The end users do not find AI agents improve their bottom lines as much as was hoped compared to the fees, and expenditure dries up slowly. OR an AI agent hallucinates a cyanide-based addition to milk formula to improve the flavour and suddenly AI usage gets regulated up the ass, forever.

it's pretty bold to say that zero people can explain how something would pop.

there's plenty of arguments, such as any dip in capex could cause multiple compression.

or that right now companies are paying top dollar for their data centers when when future capacity will come online, and it's only going to get cheaper to rent, rather than build

It always starts with a credit collapse. Enron, Worldcom, Lehman, etc. 

Hard to guess this time where it will start. Markets are far more opaque than they were pre-Bush 2. But the financing arrangements for the AI data center building hysteria seem like the best place to watch.