기술주 버블, 진짜일까? 🤔

Doesn't mean ya hear bubble instantly everything’s gonna nuke like 2000, even though today’s giants are basically printing cash. Tech’s huge because it won, not because it’s some hype balloon. Honestly feels like people just want it to crash so their bags look smarter

Bro back then banks are not small and current tech companies are not regulated as you think. I'm pessimistic. AI bubble burst will wipe anything tech related. LLMs are not AGI and amount of money poured into it is so bad. LLMs are next word prediction on steroids. If these AI companies had valid usage they wouldn't be trying to sell AI wifus. These AI companies are loosing so much money and totally running on VC funding. AI progress also kinda fallen down. These companies are making existing model little but dumb and release new model. Feels so scammy You can make money util bubble burst

Tech is great but it's pretty much ubiquitous now, like cars or medicines. Car companies and other fixed-demand industries are not very good performers long term - stocks chase possibility of growth, not stable sales, and the AI craze and the previous Crypto craze are examples of them desperately avoiding something terrifying for tech companies: the transition to a stable sales state. Once a company reaches a stable sales state the only growth is coming with population growth, and population growth is slowing or becoming negative in most developed countries, which means we're looking at a slow or even massive decline in tech stock value as we reach into the 2030s+ unless there's some magical change in fertility. There's probably a ways to go, but the everything bubble is in deep danger since the 'anvil' of the baby boomers drawing down their retirement accounts is sitting atop the market and will only dig deeper into it.

People act like pet.com was in the to 3 companies and that is simply not the case. The problem here is they spent so much money that they went from net cash positive to negative and have committed to triple down. They will soon not be able to sustain these and a lot of the smaller companies could go bankrupt. The problem here expands on the fact that the small companies aka their clients only found the money to spend on them because the large ones invested in them. So imagine Claude anthropic Gemini grok and lama all do great but chat got goes belly up because it can’t keep buying 40 of the ram supply. Let’s the consequences. NVIDIA Microsoft and lot of VC firms have write up on the hundreds of billions Microsoft loses billions of revenue same with NVIDIA Oracle has nowhere to rent their 400 billions of gpu so probably need some type of rescue since they host lots of government critical stuff plus they stop spending on NVIDIA AMD would have diluted 10% of their stock in warrants on a bankrupt company All the VC firms will need to cover their loans. 1.5 trillion in margin debt will incinerate a huge part of the market. Lot’s of stuff to unpack

Orange man bad, meaning markets can’t be good