과연 또 다시 대폭락이 올 수 있을까요? 🤔

Will never ever ever happen again. Stocks only go up. My 7 year old is picking for me and I'm up ytd

Reddit is 99% bots, isn't it?

no of course not, unless human nature has changed since the last crash?

Sigh

As everyone begins to “agree” that it’s impossible— thats how it happens. The only thing every crash has in common, is everyone at the time KNEW it wasn’t going to crash.

There are tons of mechanisms to keep the music playing in the rigged equity markets. It is orchestrated/enabled by big financial institutions, including the FED, the US administration, SEC, and the US administration.

Money printer going brrr, other QE policies, starting wars and tweet manipulations, insider trading, derivatives casino, low interest rates to give corporations cheap money for buybacks to jack up their stock prices to name a few.

If things go south, there will be circuit breakers to stop the bleed.

Moreover, there is continuous passive inflows adding buying pressure every two weeks with the paycheck. Everybody is DCAing and buying regardless of the price.

Why would it crash?

The only way I see it crashing is that the sociopath billionaires decide to crash it and buy everything back for pennies on the dollar. They will of course leave the retail holding the bag and they will get out before all happens.

You are right though, no matter what, the government and the FED will choose the way of monetizing the debt by printing much more, making USD worth much less - literally people who don't own assets (most of the people on salaries) will be cooked fast in this environment.

Uh, of course it can? No investor should be doing this with the expectation it can never crash again…

Only new to the market would think this. Sounds like I’m being rude but I’m not. Just facts.

no the market will literally never go down again

Same crash of the past like ninja loans in 2008 hardly will be repeated. Crash for new reasons can always happen. Were you ever expecting something like Covid before Covid happened? Just to make an example…

Nope. Impossible. Great question

The Fed will make stocks go up. It's their only concern. /s

I'm a bull. I do think we're in unprecedented growth, that's just getting started, and the results are more than just lucky or a good bull run. They're fundamental, things have changed and are changing. We'll only really know about it in time, but I'm convinced the overall trajectory is up at a surprising pace.

I would never say crashes can't happen. I do think actual real deep crashes are reduced or mitigated going forward, but markets get disrupted. Sortof the name of the game. Lots of things could still cause it to happen.

I also think it's crazy for people to say, with certainty that "one day there will be a crash again". How do you know this? If you accept that history is instructive but not predictive, in terms of up-cases and bull runs, then you must also accept that just because we had crashes in the past that doesn't mean we're guaranteed to have them in the future. It's possible that we don't ever again. You must acknowledge that possibility even if you give it low odds.

I do love retail investors, I think it's one of the many new details of current markets that helps to keep things up more than down. Yes they've always existed, but not at this scale, and not with this kind of ease of investment. Never before in history has this happened in any market, so that's almost certainly changing things. And that's just one factor of many. The rise of 401k's in the past 30 years is another factor, lots of safe money flooding the system, helping to put a good base layer under the whole thing.

crashes can definitely happen if the economy craps the bed and companies start printing terrible earnings numbers, recession (an actual one) etc.

if anything I think in this day and age the moves will be more violent in both directions.

Countries and institutions need to sell hard and fast in a coordinated effort to have a real crash/collapse. Everything else is just a correction. While JP Morgan, France, BlackRock, Italy are selling, on the other side of the table Vanguard, Germany, Citigroup, England are buying. None of these entities ever agree much on anything at the same time, You need more urgent sellers than urgent buyers for any price to fall. And you need more urgent sellers than urgent buyers for a price to rise (Paying any price to get in/out)

There was a year long bear market in 2022 where things where the SP500 was down 27%. And before that it crashed in covid and it crashed during liberation day. Why are we forgetting about these events?

As long as people are spending money why would the market crash? Delta is one of the few companies to report earnings so far this quarter and the airlines had to deal with a lot this quarter, one month of high gas prices and TSA delays in most of the quarter. Delta’s revenue was up 13% from the same quarter a year ago and gross profit was essentially flat up 0.34%. Delta essentially raised prices exactly enough to cover cost increases and customers waited in TSA lines, and paid the higher fuel price to travel. The consumer showed no signs of pushing back travel due to higher prices or driving instead of flying, they were willing to pay the higher costs. Some of this travel was necessary, a business is going to pay whatever it costs to get an employee on a flight, but compared to 2.8% revenue growth in full year 2025 over 2024 this is strong revenue growth in an industry that should be among the weakest in this environment.

Yes

Don´t worry. You´ll get your crash and it will be bigger, better and more outstanding than ever before. People will ask you, if you´ve ever seen such a big wonderful crash before.

Permanent crash no. If that's what you're asking. But crashes can stay down for 10 years or so before recovering